Seahawks face Fernando Mendoza, Raiders: What to watch, prediction

14 Nov 2026, 06:00 by Bob Condotta · The Seattle Times

For much of the first decade or so of Seahawks football, games against the Raiders were about as big as it got.

The first banner the Seahawks raised for winning the 1988 AFC West was achieved with a win over the Raiders in Los Angeles in the regular-season finale.

Seattle’s move to the NFC West Division in 2002 changed the team’s rivalries, and the Seahawks have played the Raiders just six times since then.

Those games have come in three cities — Oakland, Seattle and London, a 27-3 Seahawks win in the franchise’s first international game in 2018.

Now they’ll add a fourth city to that list when they play the Raiders on Sunday in Las Vegas. Though the teams played a preseason game there in 2021, the game will be the first regular-season appearance for the Seahawks in Sin City.

The game comes at a particularly key time for the Seahawks. Seattle had lost four of six games to make their postseason hopes precarious before righting the ship a week ago with a 17-3 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

Seattle’s margin for error is still slim. The Athletic put Seattle’s postseason odds at 53% entering the weekend. That would improve to 59% with a win and drop to 41% with a loss.

Sunday’s result is also one the Seahawks will have to sit with for 14 days, as they’ll have their bye next weekend before a road game against the 49ers on Nov. 29.

So even if this game may not seem as big as some in Seahawks history against the Raiders, there’s still plenty on the line.

Let’s preview the game:

Seahawks at Raiders

When, where: 1:05 p.m. Sunday, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.

TV: CBS with Ian Eagle (play by play), Ross Tucker (analyst) and Evan Washburn (sidelines).

Most recent game in series: The Raiders defeated the Seahawks 40-34 in overtime at Lumen Field in 2022. The Raiders lead the all-time series 29-25.

Point spread: Seahawks favored by 6.5.

Key injuries: Quarterback Sam Darnold (ribs, quadriceps) will miss a second consecutive game, giving Drew Lock another start at quarterback. Lock is dealing with elbow and oblique injuries but will start. Seattle also ruled out left tackle Charles Cross (ankle), left guard Quenton Nelson (knee) and defensive lineman Leonard Williams (stinger). Josh Jones will start in place of Cross and Grey Zabel will again play LG in place of Nelson.

The big story

Can Seahawks stymie Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza in first career start?

The outlook for this game changed markedly Tuesday when the Raiders traded veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to the Vikings. That means rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over as the Raiders’ starter. Mendoza was the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL draft after winning the Heisman Trophy while leading Indiana to the national title last season.

But Mendoza has played in just one game, throwing eight passes in mop-up duty during an October loss to the Patriots. He also was a little erratic in the preseason, when he threw two interceptions and had four sacks in going 25 of 45 for 240 yards and a TD. Now he’ll play his first meaningful snaps against what may be the NFL’s best defense.

As revealed by The Associated Press this week, Mendoza will become the first No. 1 overall pick quarterback to make his first career start against the defending Super Bowl champs. The Vegas line, which began the week with Seattle favored by 3.5 points, moved to 6.5 quickly after news of the Cousins trade.

Key matchup

Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald vs. Raiders coach Klint Kubiak

The two not only spent last season working together to lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl victory but also many practices calling plays against each other — Macdonald for Seattle’s defense and Kubiak the offense.

Kubiak has done a good job reviving a passing attack that was one of the worst in the NFL last year under Pete Carroll. The Raiders have thrown the third-most TDs (20), are fifth in passing yards per game (259.7) and ninth in passing yards per attempt (7.0 compared with 4.9 a year ago). But that was almost all with Cousins pulling the trigger.

The Raiders are among the NFL’s worst rushing teams, averaging a league-worst 2.9 per attempt (they were at 3.6 last year under Carroll, also worst in the league). The absence of a running attack might make it hard for Kubiak to call anything that will allow Mendoza to have much success.

Key players

Seahawks safeties Julian Love, Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada

Mendoza’s security blanket will surely be Brock Bowers, who has the most receiving yards of any tight end at 658, which is ninth overall among pass-catchers. Bowers is also coming off one of his best games of the season with seven catches for 111 yards against the 49ers.

The Seahawks gave up seven catches to Arizona’s standout tight end Trey McBride last weekend but held him to just 54 yards. Emmanwori broke up a pass intended for him in the end zone on a late fourth down to keep Seattle ahead 17-3. Love was credited as giving up two receptions to McBride but for just 17 yards, Okada two for 11 as well as linebacker Ernest Jones IV allowing one for 19. It’ll likely be a similar team effort Sunday.

Key number

3-11

The first number is the Seahawks’ turnovers in its five wins this season, and the second number is their turnovers in four losses. Put another way, the Seahawks have a plus-six turnover ratio in their wins this season and minus-seven in their four losses for a minus-one overall differential that is tied for 18^th in the NFL.

Turnovers are maybe the most basic stat there is, and finding out the reason behind them is often complicated. But no other number may be as important, and especially in a game such as this. With the Seahawks favored while going against a first-time starting QB, turnovers might be the biggest key.

Two other key questions

Can Seahawks maintain running game momentum?

The Seahawks’ running game wasn’t overly dynamic against Arizona, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. But they finished with 120 yards, fourth-most this season, and in general it felt like a step in the right direction. That was especially apparent when the Seahawks behind Zach Charbonnet rushed for 36 yards to get two first downs and run the clock out on the final drive.

The Seahawks have a great opportunity to take a bigger step against a Raiders defense that is last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (151.2) and 31^st in rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.0). If not, some may question if Seattle should have done more to improve the running game at the NFL trade deadline.

Will JSN get back on historic pace?

With Lock not airing it out much against the Cardinals while dealing with a sore elbow and oblique, receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a season-low 51 yards on seven receptions. That was his second-lowest yardage total since the start of the 2025 season, though it’s worth noting he also drew a 29-yard pass-interference penalty that set up a Seattle TD.

JSN remains on pace for 1,956 yards, just shy of the NFL record set of 1,964 set by Detroit’s Calvin Johnson in 2012. If Lock is healthier, maybe Seattle tries more deep shots this week.

Prediction

Seahawks 23, Raiders 6

Barring a slew of self-inflicted errors, this is a game the Seahawks should win comfortably.