ANDREW NEIL: Nato would never recover if Trump seized Greenland

In the end, the relentless kow-towing, the buttering up of his massive ego, the effusive praise to feed his insatiable narcissism, the knee-jerk genuflection to cater to his whims – it's all come to nothing.

The Dutch head of Nato deferentially referred to him as 'daddy'. Finland's president lauded his efforts to promote peace in Ukraine, even though they largely meant surrendering to Russia's demands. The president of the European Commission praised his deal-making even as he imposed one-sided tariffs on the European Union. Our own Keir Starmer refused to utter a word of criticism – at least in public – no matter what he did.

But the moment Donald Trump thought his European allies were trying to thwart his desire to annex Greenland, he moved to punish them for having the temerity to defy him.

In doing so, he has put the Atlantic Alliance on life support.

Trump plans to levy 10 per cent tariffs on all exports of goods to America from eight European Nato allies, including Britain, Germany and France, starting next month, rising to 25 per cent in June 'until such time', he says, 'as a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland [by the USA].'

This would be on top of existing tariffs – 10 per cent for Britain, 15 per cent for the EU. So if Trump is as good as his word, UK exporters to America will face penal 35 per cent tariffs from early summer, the main European Union exporters an even more crippling 40 per cent. It means the trade deals both the UK and the EU hammered out with the Trump administration last year aren't worth the paper they're written on.

Of course, Trump might not be as good as his word. He hasn't been in the past. Punishing tariffs have been announced only to be quietly rescinded later, especially against China, which stared him down until he retreated. He recently threatened 25 per cent tariffs on any country trading with Iran. Nothing has been heard since, even after the tyrants of Tehran started massacring protesters. He threatened 200 per cent tariffs on champagne and other booze from the EU. That hasn't happened either.

But this is a much bigger, more visible threat. So it's harder to wriggle out of it. It would be quite the humiliation if Trump was to back off, especially since European leaders show no desire, rightly, to acquiesce to his Greenland demands. As things stand, UK and EU exporters should reckon on facing high tariffs come summer. It is a frustrating, debilitating experience trying to do honest business with Trump's America these days. Many will understandably give up.

Self-styled Trump whisperers claim he's only staking out an extreme position to end up with a better deal over Greenland. That's certainly been his modus operandi in previous stand-offs when he has wanted something.

But, with Greenland, it is entirely unnecessary, for in security terms America could already get anything it wants without annexing it.

The 1951 Greenland Defence Agreement (renewed in 2004) gives the US the right to build as many bases and station unlimited numbers of troops there. During the Cold War, more than 10,000 US troops were based in Greenland. It's now only 200.

Trump claims Greenland is under threat from imminent takeover by China and/or Russia. It isn't, of course. But if Trump truly believes it, there's nothing to stop him from ramping up US military assets in Greenland back to Cold War levels or more.

Trump apologists claim Russian and Chinese ships are already menacing Greenland. That's not true either. But if it was, Trump could deploy as much of the US Navy as he deems fit round the Greenland island, building new bases on it to arm and provision US ships against any enemy.

Moreover his European Nato allies agree with him – the defence of what's being called the 'High North' does need to be bolstered. That's why they sanctioned some extra troop deployments to Greenland last week, a small first step to increase Nato resources in the Arctic. But instead of welcoming the move, Trump inexplicably saw it as a threat to America, designed to thwart his ambition to grab Greenland.

Nobody denies the new strategic importance of Greenland. Melting ice is opening up new sea lanes around it of growing geopolitical and economic significance. It

sits almost midway in the Arctic region between Russia's northern coast, with its intercontinental nuclear missiles bases, and the US mainland. It is on the approach route to America should these missiles ever head that way.

America's Pituffik Space Base is situated in Greenland (on the site of the former Thule US military base), a crucial part of America's space and Arctic defence strategy – the only US base inside the Arctic Circle and home to the 12th Space Warning Squadron, which continually surveys the Arctic Ocean and Russia's northerly Kola peninsula, where many of its strategic nuclear weapons are concentrated.

Trump says Greenland is 'vital for the Golden Dome we are building' – a reference to the massive US defence project now under way to protect the homeland from space-based weapons and ballistic weapons. It's a 21st-century version of Ronald Reagan's 'Star Wars' programme, which so discombobulated the Soviets because they feared they did not have the computer software technology to allow them to do the same.

Pituffik, which is about to undergo a massive upgrade, will be part of the Dome's outer shield. The Pentagon thinks it will have to position far more military/space resources in Greenland to make the Dome credible and to counter any Chinese/Russian expansion in the High North region.

Fair enough. Greenland seems ready to oblige. Nobody on the European side of Nato is objecting. Canada would fall under the Dome's umbrella. It could already be all systems go but for Trump's annexation obsession.

It is motivated by Trump's desire not just to be Imperial President of the USA but Imperial Overlord of the Western Hemisphere. Hence the obsession not just with Greenland but with Venezuela (where he's already put himself in charge, ignoring its democrats, working instead with what he hopes will be a compliant post-Maduro dictatorship), Cuba (where he thinks communism is on its last legs), Colombia (next for the Venezuela treatment?), Panama (he wants the canal) and even Canada (now back on his avaricious radar).

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But grabbing Greenland would be the game-changer. Denmark's prime minister has said a US attack on what is a self-governing entity within the Danish kingdom – so it's covered by Nato's collective defence guarantees (including Article 5, which regards an attack on one Nato ally as an attack on all) – would be the end of Nato. He's right. The problem? It's not clear that Trump cares.

Europe's leaders have grasped the enormity of what is at stake. Even Starmer has found some words to criticise what Trump has embarked on. Whether they can muster the willpower, unity and resources to rebuild a Nato alliance without American leadership remains to be seen.

In these pages last year, I wrote that we were at a geopolitical watershed. It was no longer just a matter of Europe doing more for its own defence (which was long overdue). It wasn't even recognising that we could no longer count on America when the chips were down. It was worse than that — the real risk was that Trump's America would behave in ways that made it the enemy.

Since then we've seen that rollout in Ukraine (where Trump pushes a Kremlin-inspired 'peace' plan), tariffs (levied more on America's supposed allies than its adversaries) and now Greenland, which takes us to a whole new level. Taking by force a territory belonging to a Nato ally would be a calumny from which Nato as we've known it could not recover.

It would mark the triumph of conquest by the very country which devised the post-Second World War rules designed to consign 'might is right' policies to the dustbin of history. Ripped up by a US President who does think might is indeed right. These are dark times. I fear we've not yet seen the worst of them.