Huge 'Christmas Eve asteroid' will skim past Earth tonight, NASA warns

by · Mail Online

With Christmas Eve just around the corner, many children might be hoping to spot Santa flying overhead.

But NASA has now warned that reindeer won't be the only things soaring above Earth in the coming days.

Tonight, a massive 'Chrismas Eve asteroid' the size of a ten-story building will skim past Earth at 14,743mph

According to NASA's Asteroid Watch dashboard, the space rock 2024 NX1 will reach its closest point to Earth at 02:56 am GMT in the early hours of Christmas Eve.

At an estimated size of 29 to 70 metres (95-230 ft) in diameter, scientists believe 2024 NX1 could hold the destructive potential of 12 million tonnes of TNT.

However, although this will be a 'near miss' by astronomical standards, experts say there is no chance of Christmas being ruined by a collision with this vast space rock.

The space agency estimates that the asteroid should pass by the planet harmlessly at a distance of about 4.48 million miles (7.21 million km).

Jess Lee, astronomer at the Royal Greenwich Observatory, told MailOnline: 'It will be very far away, around 18 times further away from the Earth than the Moon is, and so with this predicted path won’t come close enough to hit the Earth.'

NASA has warned that the huge 'Christmas Eve asteroid' will skim past Earth tonight at 14,743mph (stock image) 

The Christmas Eve asteroid was only spotted on December 12 as NASA and the European Space Agency's (ESA) planetary defence systems noticed its approach.

After calculating its orbit, the agencies listed it as a 'close approach' - meaning that it is expected to pass within 4.65 million miles (7.5 million km) of Earth.

However, based on the size of the asteroid and its distance to Earth, the ESA only rates this as a 'very frequent' approach.

Nor has the ESA included 2024 XN1 on the 'Risk List' of objects with a non-zero probability of colliding with the planet.

This means that, despite passing within touching distance on the solar system scale, there is absolutely no chance of the Christmas Eve asteroid hitting Earth.

And while that is good news for Earth, at this distance the asteroid won't be visible even to an amateur astronomer using their own telescope. 

Yet, even for a relatively small asteroid the consequences of a potential impact would be devastating.

NASA's research suggests that an asteroid of 70m in diameter is capable of flattening an area of 700 square miles (2,000 square km) if it collided with the planet. 

The asteroid 2024 XN1 (pictured) is as big as a ten-story building and could be up to 70 metres (230 ft) according to the European Space Agency's estimates. The space agencies predict that the asteroid will reach its closest point in at 02:56 am GMT in the early hours of Christmas Eve

The 'Christmas Eve' asteroid 

Name: 2024 XN1

Discovery date: December 12, 2024

Estimated diameter: 29-70 metres

Date of next approach: December 24, 2024

Closest distance to Earth: 4.48 million miles (7.21 million km)

Risk of collision: Zero  

Ms Lee says: 'If you’d like to compare it to a previous asteroid impact, the Tunguska Event in Russia in 1908 involved an asteroid which was a roughly similar size to this one. 

'It exploded above the ground and knocked down 80 million trees. The energy comparison estimates have ranged from 3-30 megatons of TNT'

Thankfully, the Tunguska Event occurred over an unihabited region of Siberia but dangerous asteroid impacts have occurred in recent history. 

In 2013 a meteor just 20m in diameter exploded 28 miles (45km) above the Russian region of Chelyabinsk.

The resulting blast released the energy equivalent of around 440,000 tonnes of TNT, damaging thousands of buildings and injuring an estimated 1,600 people.

So, although the Christmas Eve asteroid has no risk of colliding with Earth, it is a stark reminder of just how close the planet comes to disaster on a fairly regular basis.  

After making its festive appearance next week, 2024 XN1 won't come near Earth again until January 2032.

During this pass the rock will come even closer, reaching a minimum distance of 3.1 million miles (4.7 million km).

At its closest point, the Christmas Eve asteroid will pass within 4.48 million miles (7.21 million km) of Earth. This is a near miss in astronomical terms but there is no risk of a collision 

However, the Christmas Eve asteroid will make its closest pass in December of 2106 when it will skim past Earth at a distance of just 2.11 million miles (3.4 million km).

2024 XN1 won't be the only space rock paying Earth a visit over the Christmas period.

Today, a small space rock named 2013 YB actually has a slim chance of slamming into Earth at 12:27 GMT. 

However, at less than 3m (10ft) in diameter, this rock is very likely to burn up in the atmosphere, producing nothing more dangerous than a particularly bright fireball.

At this size, NASA estimates that the asteroid would break up in the atmosphere more than 26 miles (43 km) above the ground, making it unlikely that any small fragments will make it to the ground.

Even the odds of that occurring are quite low, as ESA only predicts a one-in-52,356 chance of an impact.

On Christmas Day itself, an even larger asteroid named 2021 BA2 will make a remarkably close pass of Earth.

Based on its brightness, ESA estimates that this space rock could be between 30 to 70 (100-230 ft) metres in diameter - making it a potential 'city killer'.

Earth is constantly being passed by large space rocks, some of which (pictured) have a chance of colliding with the planet. If an asteroid the size of 2024 XN1 hit Earth it would explode with the energy of 12 million tonnes of TNT

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At 21:19 pm GMT on Christmas Day, 2021 BA2 will hit its closest point to Earth, passing by at just 1.71 million miles (2.76 million km).

But at more than seven times the distance to the moon, space agencies predict no risk of a collision between the asteroid and the planet.

The next truly large asteroid to pass by Earth won't be until January 5, 2025, when a 400m (1,310 ft) asteroid will make a close pass of the planet.

This Eiffel Tower-sized space rock will blast past Earth at 49,660 miles per hour (79,920 kmph), reaching its closest point just 2.29 million miles (3.68 million km) from Earth.

WHAT COULD WE DO TO STOP AN ASTEROID COLLIDING WITH EARTH?

Currently, NASA would not be able to deflect an asteroid if it were heading for Earth but it could mitigate the impact and take measures that would protect lives and property.

This would include evacuating the impact area and moving key infrastructure.

Finding out about the orbit trajectory, size, shape, mass, composition and rotational dynamics would help experts determine the severity of a potential impact.

However, the key to mitigating damage is to find any potential threat as early as possible.

NASA and the European Space Agency completed a test which slammed a refrigerator-sized spacecraft into the asteroid Dimorphos.

The test is to see whether small satellites are capable of preventing asteroids from colliding with Earth.

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) used what is known as a kinetic impactor technique—striking the asteroid to shift its orbit.

The impact could change the speed of a threatening asteroid by a small fraction of its total velocity, but by doing so well before the predicted impact, this small nudge will add up over time to a big shift of the asteroid's path away from Earth.

This was the first-ever mission to demonstrate an asteroid deflection technique for planetary defence.

The results of the trial are expected to be confirmed by the Hera mission in December 2026.