Study provides 'early evidence' that AI could be holding back US wage growth and reducing living standards

AI might not necessarily be taking jobs

by · TechRadar

News By Craig Hale Published 14 September 2026

(Image credit: Getty Images)

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  • Highly exposed occupations are seeing less wage growth due to AI productivity gains
  • 5.8 million US workers are considered to be working in these roles
  • The impacts could lead to reduced living standards

While sceptics have been warning of mass layoffs for years, a new report reveals that AI could actually be leading to weaker wage growth instead of human replacement.

US wage growth is already slowing compared with inflation, and a new study by Apollo Global Management has proposed that AI could be to blame.

According to the data, real wage growth in highly exposed occupations has been around 6.7 percentage points lower than less-exposed occupations since 2023, while employment itself is largely no different.

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What are the real implications of AI on jobs?

The white paper estimates that 5.8 million US workers, or around 3.7% of the US labor force, works in highly exposed jobs, and this is on the basis of earlier Anthropic work whereby at least half of the job's tasks can be replaced by Anthropic's AI tools.

"Companies are capturing AI productivity gains through wage compression rather than workforce reduction," Chief Economist Torsten Slok suggested. In other words, workers are getting more work done thanks to AI, so demand for additional labor has fallen and workers' bargaining powers have weakened.

Apollo estimates the effects of this could translate to around $28 billion in lost annual labor income, but this could be on the conservative side.

Crucially, Apollo's analysis shows that AI is more likely to be affecting the price of labor rather than the quantity of labor as human-AI hybrid workforces become more common.

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