UN Calls El Niño An ’Urgent Climate Warning’: How The UK Could Fare

The United Nations (UN) have recently warned that we need to prepare for an El Niño in 2026, with its World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicting it has an an 80% chance of developing by September and a 90% chance of doing so before November. 

“Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months,” the release reads. 

A so-called “super El Niño” has been predicted for this year since as early as April. If the extreme weather event does take place, the WMO predicts “Above-average temperatures... nearly everywhere for June to August”.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 8: The sun sets on the horizon of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of La Jolla during a heat wave. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images)

What is an El Niño?

Speaking to HuffPost UK previously, Prof Bill McGuire, a professor specialising in climate hazards and author of The Fate of the World: A History And Future Of The Climate Crisis, said: “El Niño is a climate phenomenon that develops every few years, and which involves the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean becoming hotter than normal.”

The WMO reported that earlier this year, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific, which they usually use as a reference point for monitoring risks, was reaching El Niño levels. 

They added that subsurface tropical Pacific temperatures are more than 6°C higher than average, “providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming”. 

And the Southern Oscillation Index, which tracks the atmospheric conditions that could lead to events like an El Niño, are also pointing towards the event. 

In other words, everything that can signal the arrival of an El Niño before it comes is doing so.

How strong could 2026′s El Niño be?

The WMO’s secretary general, Celeste Saulo, said: “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

“The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024”. 

And in a previous HuffPost UK article, Prof McGuire warned: “The signs are that it could even be the biggest for a century and a half.”

How might an El Niño affect the UK?

Prof McGuire told us that while the event “might help to push up summer temperatures” here, “Generally, El Niño events bring colder UK winters, although it is not a hard and fast rule”. 

Even a moderate El Niño raises the risk of extreme weather conditions, the WMO said. That could include above-average temperatures “nearly everywhere for June to August”. 

The UK is especially poorly prepared for heatwaves and, despite recent calls for maximum working temperatures, has not implemented these yet. 

In summer 2025, which did not have an El Niño, the UK government reported 1,504 heat-related deaths. In the summer of 2022, when temperatures reached 40°C, 3,000 people died from heat-related causes in the UK.

The global effects will reach the UK too, directly or otherwise

On a global scale, the WMO said, typical impacts can include: 

Drought in some areas,

Erratic rainfall patterns in others, 

More hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean,

Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, and

Above-average temperatures globally.

“A super El Niño later this year is likely to see the global average temperature rise since pre-industrial times smashed again, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both this year and next breaching the 1.5°C dangerous climate change guardrail,” the professor added.

This would affect the UK, along with the rest of the world.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement, “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.

“he only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” 

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