Deep Depression Likely Over Bay In 12 Hours; Check Possible Track & Intensity

Bhubaneswar: The Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to move nearly north-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed in Tuesday.

The system is about 340 km south-southeast of Trincomalee, 630 km south-southeast of Nagapattinam, 750 km south-southeast of Puducherry and 830 km south-southeast of Chennai. “Thereafter, it is likely to continue to move north-northwestwards towards Sri Lanka – Tamil Nadu coasts during the subsequent 2 days,” it said.

The system may show marginal intensification for a short period over southwest Bay of Bengal. “However, sea surface temperature (SST)  is relatively lesser along the coast and may thus lead to slight weakening of the system before landfall. The southeasterly winds prevailing over the system area are likely to steer the system northwesterly. Various environmental features (higher SST, warm moist air incursion into the core, high ocean thermal energy) are indicating favourable environment for further intensification of system till November 26,” the IMD said in its tropical Weather Outlook.

A continuous watch is being maintained for further intensification and movement of system towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts, it added.

Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough over southwest Bay of Bengal and along and off Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts and southeast Bay of Bengal till November 29 and along & off Andhra Pradesh coast during November 27-29. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places in coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry on November 26-27, heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 28 and heavy rainfall at isolated places from November 29-30. Heavy rainfall is also likely at isolated places in Kerala & Mahe during November 2628, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam during from November 26-29.

Forecast track and intensity

On Monday, senior meteorologist Jason Nicholl tweeted that the depression in the southwest Bay of Bengal will become a deep depression in the next 24-hours. “The system can become a cyclone before striking Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu later Friday or Saturday,” he added.

Private forecaster Skymet said that terrain effect and the associated friction may deter any explosive strengthening of the system as it moves further westward. “Even, the entrainment of dry air negates sharpening of the weather systems. There is no consensus among the various models on the likely track, timelines and intensity of the weather system. The potential for development of a significant tropical storm in the next 24 hours remains medium and low during the next 48 hours. The favourable conditions getting offset by the rescinding factors, leave the system in a lurch for any clear verdict.  Though, the depression will come too close to the coast by then, but observation period of another 24 hours becomes imperative,” it added.