Delhi's monsoon might be ending soon. Here's what could bring rain one last time

Delhi's monsoon is nearing its final stretch, with a western disturbance and the weakening monsoon pattern shaping the capital's rain spell.

In Short

• Delhi-NCR monsoon rains may be nearing end soon
• Western disturbance might bring more rain before monsoon retreats
• Monsoon withdrawal starts in West Rajasthan around September 19

Delhi-NCR's monsoon rain could be entering its final stretch in the coming days.

The capital may still get a few more chances of rain in the coming days, but after that, the next significant spell could depend on whether a western disturbance affects the region.

The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecasts indicate that rainfall activity over Delhi and Haryana could continue through the middle of the week, although the broader monsoon pattern is gradually weakening.

This makes the next few days important for the capital's weather.

WHAT IS THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE DOING?

The western disturbance could interact with the monsoon system and give Delhi another spell of rain before the southwest monsoon begins its retreat from northwest India.

A western disturbance is a weather system that travels eastwards from the west, carrying moisture and influencing weather over northern India. It can bring clouds and rain when it interacts with other weather systems over the region.

The IMD has described the current western disturbance as a trough in the middle levels of the atmosphere, with its axis roughly positioned along the region north of Delhi but can still influence the weather pattern over northwest India.

At the same time, the monsoon trough remains present over northern and central India.

That could mean that Delhi has not completely lost its connection to the monsoon yet.

WHAT HAPPENS IF WESTERN DISTURBANCE IGNORES DELHI

If the western disturbance does not produce a significant spell over Delhi, rainfall activity could gradually decline as the southwest monsoon begins its withdrawal from northwest India.

IMD has said conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19. But that does not mean Delhi's monsoon will end on the same date. But it signals how the monsoon has begun to pack up to leave.

Monsoon withdrawal, however, happens in stages.

The IMD requires a sustained cessation of rainfall, the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere and a considerable reduction in moisture before declaring withdrawal from an area.

In fact, IMD's climatological data show that withdrawal reaches Delhi later than the first withdrawal from northwest India.

So even after the monsoon begins retreating from Rajasthan, Delhi can still receive rain.

For now, Delhi still has a few chances of rain left. But with the monsoon beginning its seasonal retreat from the northwest, the capital's rainy season is clearly moving towards its final act.

- Ends