2026 El Nino growing into a Godzilla, set to become most powerful in 150 years

Climate models indicate the 2026-27 El Nino could outstrip every event recorded since 1877. Scientists say its unusual speed and scale could disrupt weather worldwide, including India's monsoon.

In Short

• The event developed from La Nina-like conditions unusually quickly this year
• About 91% of simulations put temperatures above the 2015-16 benchmark record
• Scientists are watching risks to monsoon, crops and global heat

The developing 2026-27 El Nino is strengthening at a pace never seen before, with leading climate models now indicating it could become the most powerful event in at least 150 years of observations, according to an analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and research scientist with Berkeley Earth.

Drawing on 667 ensemble forecasts from 14 leading seasonal climate models, Hausfather says the event is not only expected to surpass the historic 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino episodes, but could exceed them by a margin that has "never been observed."

"The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed," Hausfather wrote in his latest analysis.

The current multi-model median projects the El Nino to peak at a 3.6°C sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nio 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific. That is nearly 0.8°C warmer than the previous record of 2.75°C, reached during the powerful 2015-16 El Nino.

To put that into perspective, the difference between the strongest and the fifth-strongest El Nino events recorded since 1877 is only about 0.5°C. The projected jump in 2026 alone exceeds that historical spread.

What has particularly surprised scientists is not just the projected intensity but the speed of development.

According to Hausfather's analysis, the 2026 event is strengthening faster than the legendary 1997-98 El Nino, which has long been regarded as the benchmark for explosive El Nino growth.

Even more remarkable, the current event emerged from La Nina-like conditions at the beginning of 2026, unlike the 2015-16 event, which had already inherited unusually warm Pacific waters from an earlier warming episode.

The forecasts show unusually strong agreement among climate models. Nearly 91% of all ensemble members predict that the 2026 event will exceed the 2015-16 record in terms of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures. Even the lowest end of the forecast range, around 2.8°C, is at or above the previous all-time record.

When scientists account for long-term global ocean warming using the Relative Oceanic Nio Index (RONI), which isolates the El Nio signal from background climate change, the outlook remains extraordinary.

Around 77% of model simulations still indicate that 2026 will be the strongest El Nino ever recorded under this metric.

Every major forecasting centre projects at least a very strong or "super" El Nino, with only one model showing a peak below the 2015-16 record. While Hausfather cautions that strong agreement among models does not necessarily guarantee accuracy, he notes that such broad consensus is uncommon in seasonal climate forecasting.

If these projections hold, the consequences could be felt worldwide. Historically, strong El Nino events reshape global weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, floods, crop losses and marine heatwaves across different regions.

For India, an intense El Nino typically weakens the southwest monsoon by disrupting moisture transport over the Indian Ocean, although local weather patterns can still vary depending on other climate drivers.

The latest projections also come against the backdrop of rising global temperatures. Scientists are closely watching whether this unprecedented El Nino, combined with human-driven climate change, could trigger another period of record-breaking global warmth similar to, or even exceeding, that experienced in 2023 and 2024.

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