Rains delayed: Why has Kerala missed its early date with monsoon?

India was expecting an early monsoon this year, but something around the Bay of Bengal has unexpectedly changed the timeline. Read when the rains will now arrive.

In Short

• Cyclone in Bay of Bengal disrupts monsoon winds
• Kerala sees pre-monsoon showers, official onset conditions unmet
• Heatwave continues to persist; El Nino may reduce seasonal rainfall

India’s southwest monsoon, which was forecast to arrive ahead of schedule, on May 26, has been delayed.

The reason?

It's a cyclonic system brewing over the Bay of Bengal which disrupts the large-scale winds the monsoon depends on. The India Meteorological Department has updated its forecast, saying that the monsoon rains and relief might reach Kerala no earlier than between June 2–4.

For a country still sweltering through one of its hottest summers in years, the wait just got a little longer.

And though it doesn't sound like much, India's monsoon is paramount for the nation's ecological regions and its large population.

Monsoon rain delivers nearly three-quarters of the country’s annual rainfall and is the lifeline of an agricultural sector that employs close to half the workforce.

HOW DID A STORM DELAY INDIA'S RAINS?

The Bay of Bengal, off India’s eastern coast, is where one arm of the monsoon originates before sweeping westward across the subcontinent.

Whenever a cyclone forms in the region, it pulls winds toward itself and breaks up the large-scale flow that the monsoon needs to push northward.

Cyclonic activity often weakens monsoon flow, just like it has this time, pushing the timeline for the monsoon to reorganise and get back on track.

A delay in monsoon due to cyclonic activity is also nothing new to India.

Cyclones have stalled the monsoon before, like in 2013 and 2021, but the timing this year, right at the edge of an already-early forecast, pushed the onset past its expected date.

KERALA REMAINS DRENCHED

The monsoon has been delayed for much of the country, but Kerala continues to see rain.

In technical terms, these rains are pre-monsoon showers, no matter how real and heavy they are.

IMD is still waiting for conditions in Kerala to meet the threshold needed for the onset of monsoon to be officially declared.

Meteorologists declare the onset only when a precise combination of conditions are met. These conditions include at least 60% of Kerala’s 14 designated weather stations recording 2.5 mm or more rainfall for two consecutive days, along with meeting specific wind speed and cloud cover conditions.

Until those conditions are satisfied, the rain falling over Kerala does not officially count.

THE WAIT CONTINUES

The monsoon’s normal onset date of June 1 has been pushed a bit, and in normal circumstances, it wouldn't matter as much for most Indians.

But 2026 has not been a normal year, nor is it projected to be.

Parts of western, northern and central India continue to bake in scorching heat, waiting for overcast skies, winds, and rain to bring relief. To make matters worse, the IMD has already projected that total seasonal rainfall this year could fall below normal due to the anticipated onset of El Nino.

There is no doubt that the monsoon will arrive, but what remains to be seen is how well it alleviates the situation, and for how long.

- Ends