Monsoon has hit a wall: What is required to break it for rain to move across India?

India's monsoon advance has stalled for nearly two weeks after an early onset. Forecasts suggest weakening dry air and stronger winds could restart its spread in the coming days.

In Short

• Dry air repeatedly suppressed cloud formation over western and central India
• Heat has persisted across large parts as rainfall activity weakened
• Moisture is gradually returning along the west coast from June 20

India's southwest monsoon has effectively hit a wall. After making an early advance into parts of the country, its march across India has completely stalled for nearly two weeks, leaving vast regions waiting for rain and pushing the seasonal rainfall deficit higher.

The prolonged pause has raised concerns among farmers, water managers and meteorologists alike. Heat continues to dominate large parts of the country, while the atmospheric conditions that normally drive the monsoon deeper into the subcontinent have remained unusually weak.

But weather experts say the situation may finally be changing.

Several key ingredients required for a vigorous monsoon advance are beginning to fall into place. If these atmospheric drivers strengthen as forecast, the monsoon could rapidly resume its northward and westward march across India over the coming days.

One of the biggest obstacles to monsoon progress has been the persistent intrusion of dry air into the Indian subcontinent. Throughout the first half of June, dry air repeatedly pushed into western and central India, suppressing cloud formation and preventing widespread rainfall.

As a result, the monsoon circulation weakened, rainfall activity diminished and temperatures climbed across many regions.

That dry air barrier is now beginning to weaken.

Meteorologists say moisture is gradually returning along India's west coast, creating a more favourable environment for rain-bearing clouds to develop. This shift is expected to become more pronounced from June 20 onward.

Another critical requirement for a strong monsoon advance is the strengthening of the Somali Jet, one of the most important drivers of the Indian monsoon.

The Somali Jet is a powerful low-level wind current that flows northward along the East African coast before crossing the Arabian Sea and delivering vast amounts of moisture toward India. During a healthy monsoon season, this atmospheric river acts like a conveyor belt, transporting moisture that fuels widespread rainfall over the western coast and interior regions.

This year, however, the jet has remained unusually weak.

The monsoon engine has essentially been running below capacity. Without a strong Somali Jet, moisture transport into India has been severely restricted, contributing to rainfall deficits across several states.

Forecast models now indicate the jet could strengthen significantly around June 20. As winds intensify over the Arabian Sea, moisture inflow into Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and other parts of western India is expected to increase sharply.

The cross-equatorial flow, another crucial component of the monsoon engine, is also forecast to strengthen. These winds transport warm, moisture-laden air from the Southern Hemisphere across the equator into the Indian Ocean and eventually toward the Indian mainland.

A stronger cross-equatorial flow helps sustain the moisture supply needed for the monsoon to advance inland.

Together, the weakening of dry air intrusion, the strengthening Somali Jet and a more robust cross-equatorial flow could re-establish the monsoon circulation that has been missing for much of June.

If these changes materialise, rainfall activity could revive from this weekend, allowing the monsoon to accelerate across Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and eventually northern India.

For a country facing a growing rainfall deficit and increasing concerns over agriculture, reservoirs and water supplies, the next few days could determine whether the monsoon regains its momentum or remains stuck for even longer.

- Ends