Monsoon stalls again: North India still waiting. Here's when rain will revive

A new system developing in the Indian Ocean could revive India's monsoon advance, with the IMD forecasting further advances into Gujarat, MP, UP, Bihar and other states over the coming days.

In Short

• Tropical system in Indian Ocean to boost monsoon into central, northern India
• Monsoon moving into Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, UP, Uttarakhand
• Monsoon arrived late in Kerala, below normal with 40-47% rainfall deficit

India's southwest monsoon has been advancing in recent days, but the rains in northern India still remain absent and temperatures remain high. But in the coming days, that could change.

A developing tropical weather system in the Indian Ocean is expected to bring fresh rain activity and help the southwest monsoon push deeper into central and northern parts of India.

This could mark an important revival after a slow and patchy start to the season.

As of Friday, June 26, conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance further into more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, the remaining areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next 3-4 days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This northward movement, aided by the tropical system, offers hope for farmers waiting to sow kharif crops and for people in northern and central regions still dealing with high temperatures.

MONSOON TO BE REVIVED

Meteorologists point to a low-pressure area or mid-level circulation north of the equator that is likely to track towards the Bay of Bengal and western India.

Such systems typically bring more moisture and rainfall activity, helping the monsoon gain momentum.

Recent days have already seen progress.

In recent days, the monsoon has advanced into parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, the remaining areas of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, and more parts of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Mumbai and surrounding regions finally received much-needed monsoon showers after a delay.

The pattern of monsoon's delayed arrival has been the major observation this season.

HOW HAS INDIA'S MONSOON BEEN?

The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days later than the normal date of June 1. It then moved quickly across southern and eastern states but slowed down significantly in mid-June, especially over western and central India.

Nationwide rainfall from the start of the season until late June remains well below normal, hovering around 40-47% deficit.

Central India has seen major deficits, while the south peninsula and east and northeast regions are also running substantially short. Meanwhile, northwest India has been relatively better due to western disturbances, but overall the country is facing a dry June.

The IMD had forecast below-normal rainfall for the full June-September season at 90% of the long-period average, largely because of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which is continuing to strengthen.

El Nino, a periodic climate pattern, typically weakens monsoon winds and reduces rainfall over India.

WHEN WILL IT RAIN IN NORTH INDIA?

For states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, rains are expected to arrive in early July and the arrival will be crucial.

Delayed monsoon has slowed paddy and other kharif sowing in many areas. A good spell in the first half of July could help late sowing and improve soil moisture.

While this revival is encouraging, it still remains possible that the overall season may end below normal due to El Nino.

July and August are the peak monsoon months, and consistent rainfall during this period can help reduce the deficit.

A stronger push in the coming days and weeks could help, bringing much-needed relief from the heat and dryness, and helping farmers nurture crops that will eventually feed billions.

- Ends