Godzilla El Nino to intensify by October: Global heat to rise, rain pattern to shift

The WMO said El Nino is set to strengthen through October, raising heat and rainfall risks worldwide. The agency said the forecasts give governments time to prepare for droughts, floods, wildfires and other disruptions.

In Short

• Pacific sea temperatures could exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in coming months
• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and warm Atlantic waters may worsen extremes
• Wetter conditions are forecast for Horn of Africa and western North America

A strengthening El Nino is expected to dominate global weather during the August-October 2026 period, bringing above-normal temperatures across much of the world while dramatically altering rainfall patterns, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned.

According to the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, El Nino is forecast to intensify into a strong event over the next three months, with sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific projected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius.

The climate phenomenon will develop alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters, creating conditions that could amplify droughts, floods and wildfire risks across several regions.

The WMO said the combination of these climate drivers is expected to produce widespread above-average temperatures over Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to carry the classic signature of a strong El Nino. Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America and southeastern South America.

In contrast, below-normal rainfall is likely across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, northern Europe, parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America.

"El Nino is not just on our doorstep, it is inside the house and turning up the heat," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said, warning that the developing climate event is unfolding on a planet already experiencing record-breaking ocean temperatures, intense heatwaves and devastating wildfires.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed that forecasts alone cannot prevent disasters but provide governments with valuable time to prepare.

"This El Nino, developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold," she said.

El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of Earth's most influential climate systems. It typically develops every two to seven years, peaks between November and February and significantly influences global temperatures and rainfall.

The WMO also clarified that while the media often refers to a "super El Nino", the term is not part of its official operational classification, which categorises events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.

To help countries prepare, the UN weather agency said it is expanding climate information services, conducting regional briefings and working with humanitarian agencies to strengthen early warning systems and disaster preparedness before the strongest impacts emerge.

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