Typhoon Dolphin raging in Pacific Ocean could hit monsoon rain in India

Super Typhoon Dolphin is moving towards Japan while weather scientists track its possible effect on India's monsoon. The storm may briefly suppress Bay of Bengal systems and reduce rainfall over parts of the country.

In Short

• Dolphin is heading for Japan with 175 kmph winds and stronger gusts
• Ryukyu and Amami islands could see heavy rain and 11-metre waves
• Scientists are tracking whether the storm briefly disrupts Bay rainfall systems

As Super Typhoon Dolphin barrels toward Japan's Dait and Ryukyu Islands with winds exceeding 175 kmph, meteorologists are closely watching not only its impact on East Asia but also its potential influence on the Indian monsoon.

While the storm poses no direct threat to India, a powerful typhoon over the western Pacific can temporarily alter atmospheric circulation and suppress rainfall over parts of the Indian subcontinent by disrupting the monsoon's moisture supply and weather systems.

According to the latest forecast, Typhoon Dolphin is located about 540 kilometres east of Minamidaito Island and is moving westward at around 17 kmph. The storm is packing sustained winds of 175 kmph, with gusts reaching 210 kmph after intensifying into a super typhoon multiple times during the past week.

Dolphin is expected to approach the Daito Islands on Thursday before slowing and reaching Okinawa on Friday.

The system is forecast to unleash destructive winds, torrential rain of 100-200 mm, with isolated totals up to 350 mm, and waves reaching 10 to 11 metres across the Ryukyu and Amami island chains.

Beyond Japan, however, weather scientists are paying attention to how the storm could interact with the larger Asian monsoon system.

Typhoons and the Indian monsoon are connected through what meteorologists describe as a "competition" for heat, moisture and atmospheric energy. When an intense cyclone develops over the western North Pacific, it enhances convection over that region while suppressing thunderstorm activity over the Bay of Bengal.

The Bay of Bengal is the primary breeding ground for monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions that deliver widespread rainfall across central, eastern and northern India. If these systems fail to develop, monsoon rainfall can weaken temporarily.

A strong typhoon can also alter the position of the monsoon trough and modify upper-level wind patterns, further reducing the likelihood of fresh rain-bearing systems forming over the Bay.

However, experts caution that Dolphin alone is unlikely to trigger a prolonged "break monsoon" over India.

Its impact will largely depend on how long it remains intense and whether it continues westward into the South China Sea or recurves toward eastern China. Current forecast models remain divided, with some projecting landfall near Wenzhou and others closer to Taizhou along China's eastern coast.

India's monsoon is currently being influenced by multiple large-scale climate drivers, including El Nino, the evolving Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the frequency of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems. In such a setting, Dolphin could briefly suppress the formation of new weather systems over the Bay, potentially leading to a temporary reduction in rainfall over parts of India.

Meteorologists say the monsoon is expected to recover once the typhoon weakens or moves away from the tropics, allowing the Bay of Bengal to once again become favourable for the development of low-pressure systems that sustain rainfall across the country.

- Ends