Monsoon still has some fight left in it. More rain to hit from these dates

A possible Bay of Bengal system could bring fresh rain to eastern and central India later this month. At the same time, drier conditions may hasten monsoon withdrawal from the northwest.

In Short

• Forecasts suggest a low-pressure area may form over the Bay soon
• Its projected path currently runs via Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and Bihar
• The weather model shows heavy rain near the system's likely core

Just when it appeared that the southwest monsoon was beginning to lose steam, the weather system may have one more significant spell of rain left in it.

Fresh projections indicate that a depression, or possibly a stronger tropical cyclone, could develop over the Bay of Bengal between September 24 and 28, potentially bringing another round of widespread rainfall to parts of eastern and central India.

However, there is still considerable uncertainty over the system's formation, intensity and eventual track.

Current model projections suggest that the system could initially move northwestwards towards Odisha before tracking across parts of south Chhattisgarh and Bihar.

It may then curve towards Northeast India, potentially spreading rainfall across a wide swathe of the country during the final phase of the monsoon season.

The latest Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) model projection for September 26 shows a well-marked low-pressure system over the region, accompanied by a large area of rainfall.

The model indicates the possibility of intense rainfall near the core of the system, although the exact location and strength could change considerably as the date approaches.

Meteorologists caution that it is too early to draw firm conclusions about the system. Tropical weather systems over the Bay of Bengal can undergo significant changes in their track and intensity depending on evolving atmospheric conditions. A clearer assessment is expected once the potential system begins taking shape.

While eastern and northeastern India could see renewed monsoon activity later in the month, the story may be very different for northwest India.

A massive anticyclone is projected to develop over northwest India and extend across the northern Arabian Sea after September 25.

Such a circulation could bring drier conditions and accelerate the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from large parts of north, west and central India.

The withdrawal process itself may begin over northwest Rajasthan around September 15 to 18, marking the first major step in the seasonal retreat.

So, while the monsoon may soon begin withdrawing from parts of northwest India, it is not ready to surrender everywhere just yet. If the Bay of Bengal system develops as currently projected, the final days of September could still bring one last burst of significant monsoon rain across parts of India.

- Ends