Monsoon missing, but revival soon: These states on cusp of getting rain

After a largely dry June that left India well short of normal rain, the monsoon is reviving as a low-pressure trough and several wind circulations strengthen. Here is which states get rain first, why the Northeast keeps flooding, and when Delhi can expect relief.

In Short

• India's monsoon revives after a weak, rain-starved June 2026 spell
• Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar are first in line
• Delhi waits until early July as the heat finally breaks

On June 28, the hills of Meghalaya drowned under 39 centimetres of rain in a single day.

Nearly 2,000 kilometres away, parts of Uttar Pradesh were baking through a severe heat wave, with Phalodi in Rajasthan touching 43.8 degrees Celsius.

One country, one monsoon, but wildly different skies. After a stuttering, largely dry June, India's most important weather system is finally stirring back to life.

Several states in Central and North India are now on the cusp of revival, with the rain expected to push into parts of the hills and some western states soon after.

WHY DID THE MONSOON GO MISSING IN JUNE?

The rain did not fail, but it paused. On the map, the monsoon had swept across much of the country, yet the actual rainfall lagged far behind.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the country logged just 53.1 mm against a normal of 97.6 mm between June 4 and 22, a 46 per cent shortfall and among the driest such spells in years.

The culprit was a weak phase.

The winds that carry ocean moisture inland slackened, fewer rain-making systems formed, and western disturbances, the eastward-moving storms that normally hand the north its winter rain, nudged the monsoon's advance off track.

WHAT IS CAUSING THE MONSOON’S REVIVAL?

Look at the sky's plumbing. The IMD says a seasonal trough, or a long belt of low pressure that works like the monsoon's spine, now runs from Punjab to Bihar.

Circling near it are several cyclonic circulations, or swirls of wind spinning anticlockwise over Madhya Pradesh, the Arabian Sea and Telangana.

Picture them as atmospheric whisks that churn warm, damp air upwards, where it cools, clumps into clouds and falls as rain.

With the moisture-heavy Somali Jet, a strong low-level wind streaming in from the ocean, also strengthening in the IMD's extended-range forecast, the Met department expects the rain to spread widely.

WHICH STATES WILL GET RAIN FIRST?

Over the next two to three days, the IMD expects the monsoon to push into Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and the rest of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Soon after, it should reach more of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan.

WHY IS NORTHEAST INDIA STILL FLOODING?

While the plains waited, the Northeast was drenched. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast there, and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, for five days.

The Bay of Bengal pumps in moisture, and the Himalayan foothills shove that wet air sharply upwards. Meghalaya's 39 centimetres was the result.

WHEN WILL THE MONSOON REACH DELHI?

The capital sits at the system's far north-western edge, so it waits its turn. As the trough strengthens and a fresh western disturbance arrives around July 2, the IMD expects rain to build over Delhi in early July, finally cracking the heat.

A stalled monsoon, then, is not a failed one. It is a giant moisture conveyor catching its breath. This week, it is moving again.

- Ends