Monsoon march begins: Mumbai drenched, Gujarat next. But could it stall again?

India's monsoon has begun progressing again after weeks of delays, with the IMD declaring monsoon onset over Pune and forecasting further advance across several states. But for how long will the monsoon march last this time?

In Short

• Monsoon onset was delayed, Pune got rains on June 22, 12 days late
• Rainfall deficit of 40% hit central and western India early season
• Monsoon advancing in Maharashtra, but with cautious optimism

India’s southwest monsoon, vital for the country’s agriculture and water supplies, has shown fresh signs of progress after weeks of sluggish movement and widespread rainfall shortages.

On June 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the monsoon’s onset over Pune, bringing relief to a region that had waited nearly 12 days beyond its usual June 10 arrival.

DELAYED MONSOON

The 2026 monsoon season got off to a slow beginning.

It arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days later than normal. Progress northward has been uneven, with periods of stalling that left large parts of central and western India dry.

As of mid-June, the country faced a significant rainfall deficit of around 46% below normal in the early phase, raising concerns about water shortages.

In cities like Mumbai, without timely rains, water reservoirs have been critically low, straining thousands of households, and prompting authorities to restrict industrial and commercial water consumption and curb water supply for construction activities.

IMD scientists link the hesitant advance partly to shifting wind patterns and broader climate influences, including a developing El Nino that has prompted forecasts of below-normal rainfall for the June-September season overall.

WILL MONSOON MARCH STALL AGAIN?

Good news arrived on June 22.

The IMD reported that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance further into more parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, along with remaining areas of Telangana and Odisha, and parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Bihar within the next 48 hours.

Winds are picking up pace, and recent pre-monsoon showers have already brought some rain to Mumbai and Pune. The northern limit of the monsoon continues to shift, though experts watch closely for any renewed pause.

However, another prolonged monsoon stall cannot be ruled out completely. The risk, though, appears lower than it did a week ago.

A fresh pause would require unfavourable conditions such as persistent Western Disturbances over northwest India, a weak Somali Jet reducing moisture inflow, renewed dry air intrusion into central India, or a rapid strengthening of El Nino.

The latest outlook shows more supportive conditions, including an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, an east-west shear zone across central India, and the establishment of the Tropical Easterly Jet. The bigger concern now is whether rainfall can recover enough to reduce India's significant June deficit.

While the advance brings optimism, the season’s overall outlook remains worrying, thanks to the strengthening El Nino and the risk of uneven distribution and potential dry spells it brings.

The IMD continues to monitor daily conditions and will update as the monsoon advances. This dynamic start has highlighted how unpredictable India’s monsoon can be, offering both challenges and renewed hope for millions with each passing day.

- Ends