Opinion – Maharashtra Premier League: Tricky pitch for MVA, Mahayuti

The Maharashtra Assembly elections are set for November 20. Two main groups are competing: the Maha Vikas Aghadi and the Mahayuti. It's going to be a tough challenge for both sides. Here's why.

The Maharashtra Premier League is going to take place on November 20. Two teams are vying for the trophy: the Maha Vikas Aghadi and the Mahayuti. The former has Congress as captain; the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackery) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) are the other players. The latter has the Bharatiya Janata Party as captain. The Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) are the other players.

The MPL has six matches on six different pitches: Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, West Maharashtra, Mumbai, and Thane-Konkan. Both sides have all-rounders and specialists.

All the pitches have unique characteristics and require different skill sets to succeed. Players like the NCP(AP) and the NCP(SP) are specialists in one particular type of pitch, West Maharashtra. The Congress and the BJP excel in Vidarbha. And the two Sena factions favour Mumbai and Thane-Konkan.

The pitches

Vidarbha: This drought-prone region that receives little rainfall is a hotbed of agricultural distress and accounts for half of all farmer suicides in the state. It is a relatively backward region of the state whose per capita income is 30 per cent of the state average.

Marathwada: A third of the state's Maratha population lives here. This region, like Vidarbha, faces drought (though of lower magnitude) and leads in farmer suicides after Vidarbha. Its per capita income is just 60 per cent of the rest of Maharashtra.

West Maharashtra: Popularly known as the sugar bowl of the state, this region has a strong cooperative sector base — sugar factories, credit societies, banks. It is an economically advanced region that also houses the state’s automobile and IT industries.

North Maharashtra: Major agricultural produce from this region includes grapes, bananas, and onions. A ban on onion exports became a major issue in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While Nashik is economically developed, other districts are among the 250 most backward districts in India. Scheduled Tribes are kingmakers here.

Thane-Konkan: The third-most industrialised zone of Maharashtra, Thane has the second-highest per capita income after Mumbai. It's a highly urban region with a high migrant population working in factories and industries.

Mumbai: A 100 per cent urban region, it is the financial capital of the country housing the stock exchanges, bank headquarters, and other financial companies. Its per capita income is three times that of the backward regions of the state. Migrants make up 43.02 per cent of the total population.

Who’s playing how many matches?

From the Mahayuti, the BJP is contesting 149 seats. The Sena (Shinde) is contesting 81 seats, the NCP(AP) 59, and other allies are vying for six seats. It has no candidate for the Malegaon Central seat.

In eight seats, two Mahayuti parties are competing against each other. In three seats, there are friendly fights between the BJP and the NCP(AP) and in five seats, there are friendly — or rather unfriendly — fights between the Sena (Shinde) and the NCP(AP).

The BJP is contesting the highest number of seats (47) in Vidarbha, followed by West Maharashtra (31), and Marathwada (20). It faces tricky pitches in Vidarbha, where soybean prices have become a major issue, and in Marathwada, where the Maratha agitation cost it dearly in general elections. In Western Maharashtra, the BJP is facing the wily Sharad Pawar who is out there to exact revenge for his party’s split. A third of its total contests are in Vidarbha, where it plays three-fourths of all matches.

The Sena (Shinde) is contesting the highest number of seats in Thane-Konkan (18), followed by Marathwada (16), and Mumbai (15). It faces the Sena (Uddhav) in Thane and Mumbai in a battle for the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. In the 2024 general elections, Eknath Shinde stood his ground against Uddhav Thackeray, unlike Ajit Pawar, who was no match for Sharad Pawar. It will contest 40 per cent of its seats in the stronghold of the undivided Sena.

The NCP(AP) is contesting the highest number of seats in West Maharashtra (25), followed by Marathwada (10), and North Maharashtra (9). It faces the NCP(SP) in West Maharashtra in an “asli versus nakli NCP” battle. In the 2024 general elections, Ajit Pawar received a drubbing, winning just one of the four Lok Sabha seats facing vote transfer issues with the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) foe-turned-friend. It is contesting 40 per cent of its seats in the stronghold of the undivided NCP.

From the MVA, the Congress is contesting 101 seats, the Sena (Uddhav) 95, and the NCP(SP) 86. Other allies will contest seven seats. It had no candidate for the Kolhapur North seat, as its candidate withdrew from the race at the last moment.

In two seats, there are friendly fights between the Congress and the NCP(SP) and the Congress and the Sena (Uddhav).

The Congress is contesting the highest number of seats in Vidarbha (40), followed by West Maharashtra (19), and Marathwada (15). It hopes to exploit rural and agricultural distress in Vidarbha and continue with its winning streak from the general elections in 2024. In Marathwada, it hopes Marathas demanding a reservation will vote for it, lured by its promise of increasing the reservation cap beyond 50 per cent. About 40 per cent of its total contests are in Vidarbha, where it will play two-thirds of the matches.

The Shiv Sena (Uddhav) is contesting the highest number of seats in Thane-Konkan (24), followed by Mumbai (22). It faces the Sena (Shinde) in Thane and Mumbai in a battle for the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. In the 2024 general elections, while Uddhav won the Mumbai battle against Shinde, the latter won in direct fights in Thane-Konkan. It is contesting almost half of its seats in the stronghold of the undivided Sena.

The NCP(SP) is contesting the highest number of seats in West Maharashtra (38), followed by Marathwada (15), and Vidarbha (13). It faced the NCP(AP) in West Maharashtra in a battle for the “asli versus nakli NCP”. In the 2024 general elections, Sharad Pawar won the first round, winning eight of the 10 Lok Sabha seats it fought, and bagged 74 per cent of the undivided NCP support. It is contesting 45 per cent of its seats in the stronghold of the undivided NCP, West Maharashtra.

Who’s playing against whom?

There are three key battles in Maharashtra: Congress vs BJP, Sena (Shinde) vs Sena (Uddhav), and NCP(AP) vs NCP(SP). These account for 169 seats, almost 60 per cent of the Assembly strength.

Congress and the BJP will face each other in 75 seats; 35 in Vidarbha, 12 in West Maharashtra, and 10 in Marathwada. In one-on-one battles, the BJP used to enjoy an upper hand before the 2024 general elections. However, that perception has changed. The Congress’ strike rate against BJP at the national level increased from eight per cent in 2019 to 29 per cent in 2024.

Of the 90 Assembly seats where they faced each other in general elections in Maharashtra, Congress was leading in 52, and the BJP in 38. Vidarbha, where half of these battles are being fought, could well decide the course of these elections. The MVA has promised farm loan waivers and guaranteed minimum support price, while the Mahayuti has increased the PM Kisan Nidhi support from Rs 12,000 to Rs 15,000 per year, along with free electricity. Farmers are kingmakers in Vidarbha.

The Sena factions face each other in 53 seats, 16 in Thane-Konkan, and 11 in Mumbai and Marathwada each. Half of these battles are in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. While the Thackerays are strong in Mumbai, Shinde is strong in Thane. The Shiv Sena relied on leaders like Shinde and Narayan Rane in Thane-Konkan and now both are in the Mahayuti. Here, the Congress and NCP have a limited presence while the BJP has a decent presence, which adds to Mahayuti’s chances.

The NCP factions are facing each other in 41 seats, 20 of them in West Maharashtra alone. There is sympathy in favour of Sharad Pawar, who is playing the card of “his last elections”. An epic battle between Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit is taking place in Baramati after Ajit’s wife lost to Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Lok Sabha polls. Ajit Pawar hopes his MLAs who hold significant influence in the region will pull off the local battles.

Kamzor kadi kaun?

The results will also depend on who’s the weak link in the two teams. In the 2024 general elections, it was the NCP(AP) for Mahayuti. The strength scanner of parties based on results from 2009 to 2019 shows that of the 149 seats the BJP is contesting, 95 are strong/very strong ie, it has won the seat twice or thrice in the last three polls. Of the 101 seats being contested by the Congress, 39 are strong/very strong seats.

The proportion of weak seats being contested shows that the ratio is lowest for the BJP at 14 per cent and highest for the Sena (Uddhav) at 34 per cent. Of the 95 seats the latter is contesting, it has not won or did not contest even once in 32 in the last three polls. On 31 such seats it faces the BJP, this also becomes one of the key battles to watch out for, 18 of these seats are strong / very strong seats of the BJP. There has been a lot of tension in the MVA over seat-sharing with Congress leaders admitting it has ceded a very high number of seats to Uddhav Thackeray. 5 seats where Sena (Uddhav) is contesting are strong / very strong seats of Congress and NCP.

Will Uddhav be the “kamjor kadi” of the 2024 Maharashtra Premier League? Will the Vidarbha pitch decide who lifts the trophy? Who will be the Man of the Series, the BJP or the Congress, or will Sharad Pawar have the last laugh?

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)