July monsoon defied forecast: How did India get surplus rain after June deficit?

The monsoon entered July with a huge deficit and a bleak outlook. By the month's end, the rainfall picture had changed significantly. Who was the saviour of India's rainy season?

In Short

• July rainfall ended 1% above normal, easing monsoon deficit
• IMD forecasted below-normal rainfall for July initially
• August forecast predicts below-normal rain amid strong El Nino

India's monsoon delivered a surprise in July.

At the start of the month, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast below-normal rainfall across the country for the entire month. Instead, July ended with rainfall about 1% above normal, helping narrow the overall monsoon deficit.

The reversal of the forecast of July's rainfall patterns was something that effortlessly stood out, mostly because the 2026 monsoon had begun on a weak note, with June ending nearly 40% below normal.

The unexpected performance by the monsoon, therefore, asks a simple question. What changed?

A BLEAK FORECAST

The IMD, on June 30, had forecast that India's average rainfall in July would be below normal, or less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The outlook was shaped partly by the evolving El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which were surely expected to hit the rainy season.

The impacts were expected to be acute as the weather department's broader May forecast had put the 2026 monsoon at just 90% of its seasonal LPA. A deficient season.

But then, forecasts are rather nuanced.

The monthly forecast does not mean every part of the country will remain dry, and is a probability-based assessment of large-scale climate conditions.

Meanwhile, the actual rainfall depends heavily on weather systems that develop during the month.

That is exactly what happened in July.

WEATHER SYSTEMS CHANGED THE STORY

July hosted a number of weather systems.

Several low-pressure systems and associated circulations developed over the Bay of Bengal and central India, repeatedly reviving monsoon activity.

Early in the month, a well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal helped strengthen rainfall over central and eastern India.

Another well-marked low-pressure system over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh triggered heavy rain across parts of north and central India in the second week.

The biggest bursts came later.

Gujarat was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall, with Valsad recording more than 100 cm of rain in 24 hours.

The IMD subsequently warned of more exceptionally heavy rain over Gujarat.

WAS THE FORECAST WRONG?

Although it wasn't met, the IMD's monthly rain forecast was not necessarily wrong.

The forecast captured the broader climate risk, but it could not precisely predict the arrival of several low-pressure systems weeks in advance.

Furthermore, the rainfall pattern also remained uneven.

The monsoon rainfall varied widely from week to week and from region to region, with some areas receiving normal or excess rain while others remained deficient.

And the patterns may change again in August.

The latest IMD forecast, issued on July 31, forecast below-normal rainfall for August, at less than 94% of it LPA. It also said that the August-September period as a whole could receive below-normal rainfall.

Moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to strengthen further during the remaining monsoon season, meaning rainfall remains prone to sudden changes.

In retrospect, July showed why India's monsoon cannot be judged by a single forecast.

The climate patterns and systems set the broad odds and eventually decide where the rain falls and how much.

- Ends