Mission: Kill smartphones. How: use AI. Chances of failure: 99.9%

Everyone wants to kill the smartphone because it is now almost 20 years old, an eternity in the tech world. No one has succeeded so far and no one, not even Sam Altman who is working with iPhone designer Jony Ive to make a smartphone-killer, is likely to succeed.

In Short

• Smartphone is still going strong
• There is speculation AI will kill it, so far no sign it will happen
• Smartphone form factor and utility is near perfect

In the history of mankind, there has never been a more successful gadget than the smartphone. It’s not even close. We have seen craze about some other gadgets, such as Nintendo Wii, and there have been gadgets, like Sony Walkman, that became part of our collective culture. But there has never been something like the smartphone.

Before writing this piece, I was researching the history of electronics with Gemini, an AI assistant. In one of the responses, Gemini called the smartphone “a historical anomaly” because “it is the only electronic device that billions of people feel the need to replace every 2 to 4 years.” Indeed, an anomaly it has been.

To understand it, all you have to do is look at the Apple earnings that the company declared on Thursday. Years after the iPhone started the era of smartphones in 2007, the device is still going strong. It is not growing like adults, maturing gradually and gracefully. Instead, it is seeing explosive growth that defies the theories of management guru Philip Kotler.

On Thursday night Apple said its iPhone revenue grew 22 per cent year-on-year. For a product now almost 20 years old, an eternity in San Francisco, this growth defies all rules of gravity.

It’s not just the iPhone, though. Smartphones are the gadgets around which our lives revolve. Nearly one and half billion are sold every year, a crazy number by any standard. And in total, the market size of smartphones is expected to be over $600 billion in 2026, which is 2X to 3X of other top gadgets from history in their best year.

It is this oversized importance that smartphones play in our lives, and their market size, which is spawning a number of wannabe assassins. From Sam Altman to Mark Zuckerberg, everyone wants to kill smartphones. The argument is simple: the smartphone is old technology and it is ripe for disruption. We are now entering the era of AI, and in this era smartphones are not needed. Or, we need a different kind of device, the one that has none of the drawbacks of a smartphone but all its goodness.

In this attempt to kill smartphones, many efforts are ongoing. Meta, where Mark Zuckerberg is a big fan of wearable gadgets, has found some success with its AI Glasses. But its impact on smartphones has been negligible so far. Sam Altman, the OpenAI CEO, is working on a number of ideas with iPhone designer and former Apple guru Jony Ive. One of them is said to be a pebble-shaped and AI-first gadget that won’t have a screen. Instead, it will be controlled by voice. OpenAI is also, apparently, working on smarter earpieces that can replace smartphones, and even a unique AI-first smartphone that can change the rules of the game and beat the mighty iPhone.

Then there are attempts to over-engineer smartwatches, so they can replace a smartphone. Apple itself has tried to break into a new category and hedge against the aging iPhone by getting into virtual reality headsets with the Vision Pro. But so far nothing has come anywhere close to match the functionality and usability of a smartphone, let alone replace it.

One device to rule them all

There is a reason for the longevity and this incredible appeal of smartphones: They are near perfect in terms of their functionality and usability. They have set such a high benchmark in what they bring to table that it has been so far impossible to match them.

Consider their functionality: A smartphone is a mix of multiple devices, and all these devices can be used simultaneously. You can listen to music while also doing the office spreadsheets on it.

This device is incredible. It is a phone, which can be used for calls and messages. It is a laptop, which can be used for browsing the internet, either through a web browser or through individual apps. You can use it to scan documents, send emails and record meetings. It is also a camera, a fairly potent one nowadays if you happen to own a high-end smartphone. Then it is a navigation tool, with access to real-time GPS data. It allows you to do video conferencing, without needing anything else. It is also an alarm clock, a reminder tool, a digital diary, sticky notes, and a fitness tracker. A smartphone also doubles up as a gaming console, and for many it can serve as an impromptu TV to watch stuff. And of course, it plays music while it does it all.

All of this you get in a device that measures around 6 to 8 inches, and which is light enough to be carried throughout the day in hands or in a pocket. Significantly, inside the phone you get a battery that lasts, for most users, almost the full workday. When you zoom out and look at everything that iPhone or Pixel offers, it is incredible to realise that it all costs so little — relatively speaking.

More than the functionality, it is the form factor that makes the smartphone an apex gadget. It is always reachable, always with you and yet it never feels intrusive, not with its physical form. You can interact with it in multiple and natural ways. You can type, or you can speak to it. On a smartphone screen, you can manipulate content in ways you cannot do on any other gadget, including on a laptop.

All other gadgets are speciality devices. They do one or two things the best. And then some more, but not optimally. A smartphone is a generalist, it is almost always good enough at everything it does.

A smartwatch is too small and too underpowered to function like a smartphone. Smart glasses are limited because they too are underpowered, and have input and output limitations due to their screens. They are intrusive because you have to wear them on your face and that is annoying. The same annoyance is also part of the problem with something like Apple Vision Pro. You have to strap it to your face for it to work, and once you strap it to your face it limits you in everything else by physically cutting you off from your environment.

As much as the iPhone, the one that started it all, has been a result of extraordinary engineering and design, it is also in some way a product of luck. Call it serendipity. Or at least, that is how it has turned out to be. Because when the iPhone was launched, it was a rather limited device. In 2007, third-party apps were not supposed to run on it. A year later, Steve Jobs agreed to apps reluctantly. It is possible that he had never envisioned what the iPhone would become in 19 years because in 2007 it was a much limited device in its scope and imagination.

But the smartphone, after its introduction, changed. It acquired a momentum of its own as Android phone companies, and then Apple too, pushed to add more and more functionality to the device. These companies knew that they had chanced upon a design and form factor so perfect, so ergonomic and natural that it would have potential to replace almost every other gadget in one’s backpack.

Is the rule forever?

This brings up the question, can the reign of the iPhone, and smartphones in general, last forever? Can an AI device kill the smartphone in near future? The way I see it, it is quite clear: not anytime soon.

Of course, there is never a good idea to say never. And the way I can imagine, I do have an image of a device that would make me ditch my iPhone. Not smart glasses. Or a smartwatch. Or a virtual reality headset. Or an AI pendant. None of that.

But I can imagine a device, something the size and shape of a 2 or 3 inches pebble, that I believe can replace a smartphone. It will not have a screen. And it will be an AI-first device, running software that will be polymorphic, changing its characteristics depending on the task at hand. This will allow the device to connect to any compatible screen or machine, and then function as the kind of gadget that is always perfect in the moment when you need it, for tasks that are in the middle of.

For example, at work you will be able to attach this “pebble” to a monitor and then access it like you do a computer or laptop. On the go, this pebble will connect to a smaller screen wirelessly while it is in your bag or pocket, and give you the “smartphone experience”. At home, you will be able to attach the “pebble” to your TV and then get the big-screen experience. The pebble will be able to connect simultaneously to multiple devices. Earbuds, speakers, watch, thermostat, a laptop-sized screen, a television-sized panel — you name, and our smart “pebble” will connect to all. And it will automatically know which is which, and will offer functionality that is relevant to that screen or device.

But such a device is currently not possible. The technology to create something like this doesn’t exist. We will need chips many times more powerful than what we get in the current iPhone for such a “pebble”. These chips will also need to run cooler, compared to how they run at the moment. At the same time we will need multiple breakthroughs in network and battery technologies for such a “pebble” to exist. Currently, the wireless connectivity has too much latency, and the batteries are too inefficient.

Short of this dream-like pebble, I do not see a gadget that can replace the iPhone as the apex device. Of course, this will not stop companies and people from trying. And they should try. But short of major technology breakthroughs, which are still some 10-15 years away, they will fail.

- Ends