Monsoon onset over Kerala delayed: might miss its traditional June 1 onset date

28 May 2026, 09:19 by Sunita · KalingaTV

The southwest monsoon, which was forecasted to arrive in Kerala ahead of schedule, on May 26, has been delayed. Moreover, experts have raised doubts that the monsoon might not even arrive by it’s normal timeline of June 1, citing weak monsoon winds and unfavourable large-scale weather patterns showing unfavourable conditions.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected monsoon onset over Kerala around May 26, with a model error of plus or minus four days.

However, a cyclonic system brewing over the Bay of Bengal has disrupted the formation of monsoon as the strom is pulling down the winds towards itself, and breaks up the large-scale flow that the monsoon needs to push northward.

Now, the India Meteorological Department has updated its forecast, saying that the monsoon rains and relief might reach Kerala between June 2–4.

Monsoon rain delivers nearly three-quarters of the country’s annual rainfall and is the lifeline of an agricultural sector that employs close to half the workforce.

A delay in monsoon due to cyclonic activity is also nothing new to India.

Cyclones have stalled the monsoon before, like in 2013 and 2021, but the timing this year, right at the edge of an already-early forecast, pushed the onset past its expected date.

The monsoon has been delayed for much of the country, but Kerala continues to see rain. In technical terms, these rains are pre-monsoon showers, no matter how real and heavy they are.

IMD is still waiting for conditions in Kerala to meet the threshold needed for the onset of monsoon to be officially declared.

However, people are eagerly waiting for the monsoon rains as they expect it to bring relief from the severe heat caused by the El Niño effect.

Monsoon onset over Kerala delayed: might miss its traditional June 1 onset date

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