Climate change will disrupt rain pattern

Report reveals changes in precipitation in Indian Himalayas will shift monsoon trends; temperature will rise by 1.5 degree C by 2057

The South West and North East Monsoon bring lots of rains to Karnataka. Any change in the monsoon pattern can severely affect the ecological balance. However, as per the latest climate change predictions (2021-2040) by Azim Premji University, things do not look that good. The new climate data set for India released by the university offers critical insights into how climate change will impact the country over the next two decades.

The report states that the northeast monsoon shows a rather grim picture where a major part of the country will experience a decrease in precipitation in the Indian Himalayas. On the other hand, the western and south western states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka and parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, including parts of Ladakh, will experience an increase in precipitation of 20 to 60%, with the highest being in Gujarat (50 to 60%). On the other hand, the southwest monsoon will see a shift from east to west with the normally drier western states experiencing higher precipitation.

The report states that from 1986-2015, India’s annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures have shown substantial warming trends during the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May). The frequency of heat extremes in India has increased between 1950-2015, and warming has occurred over the past three decades at an accelerated rate.

Changes in the monsoonal rainfall pattern will significantly impact the country’s agrarian economy and food security. Droughts and floods are also projected to increase, as per the climate model data, which will have a deleterious impact on the economy, health, and food supply of the people. There is also a noticeable increase in the frequency of post-monsoon cyclonic storms, causing severe consequences on the coastal communities.

Temperature rise

The report states that the average annual maximum temperature is projected to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2057. In a more extreme “Fossil-Fueled Development” scenario, this increase will occur earlier, by 2047. Similarly, India’s average summer maximum temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees C by 2043 under the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario and by 2041 in the case of ‘Fossil-Fueled Development’.

“Under a low-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 196 districts across India are expected to see a summer maximum temperature increase of at least one degree C, with 70 districts experiencing a similar annual temperature rise. Leh is projected to record the highest change at 1.6 degrees Celsius for both summer and annual maximum temperatures. Additionally, 139 districts are likely to witness a winter minimum temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C or more, while 611 districts will face a rise of at least one degree Celsius in winter minimum temperatures,” the report states.

In contrast, under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the temperature shifts are more pronounced. “Approximately 249 districts are expected to experience an annual maximum temperature increase of one degree Celsius or more, with 16 districts, predominantly in the Himalayan states, seeing an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius or more, the highest being 1.8 degrees Celsius in Leh. Summer maximum temperatures will rise by at least one degree Celsius in 517 districts, with 17 districts observing an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius or more, again with Leh at 1.7 degrees Celsius. Winter minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius or more in 162 districts, with Anjaw district in Arunachal Pradesh seeing the highest increase of 2.2 degrees Celsius. Both scenarios highlight critical health risks in 24-25 districts located in coastal states and the eastern Himalayas...” it states.