Two back-to-back WDs likely to end prolonged dry spell in Kashmir

Srinagar, Dec 18: The prolonged dry spell in the Valley is likely to end as two back-to-back Western Disturbances (WDs) are expected to cause precipitation across Jammu and Kashmir from December 20 to 23 (Saturday to Tuesday). The change in weather activity is also expected to significantly improve the Air Quality Index (AQI) across the Union Territory, according to data shared by Kashmir Weather.

As per the data, December 18 and 19 are expected to remain largely dry with cloudy conditions across J&K. On December 20, the weather is likely to stay mostly dry; however, a few higher reaches may receive a light spell of snowfall, especially along the Sonamarg–Drass axis and in the upper areas of Bandipora and Kupwara.

The first western disturbance is expected to start affecting the region from Saturday night onwards, while the second system will merge with it on Monday and is likely to persist until Tuesday afternoon. Rain and snow activity is expected to commence from Saturday night, beginning over higher reaches, with peak activity likely on Sunday or Monday.

“Current analysis suggests that the higher reaches of north Kashmir, particularly Kupwara district, are likely to be the most affected. Snowfall over higher elevations is expected to range from light to heavy, with heavy snowfall mainly anticipated in Kupwara’s upper reaches. Snowfall may also extend to higher areas of Bandipora, Ganderbal and Baramulla.” the data states.

Overall, the data suggests, the intensity of the weather system is expected to remain light to moderate. The plains are likely to witness light rainfall, with moderate rainfall in some areas. Due to relatively higher temperatures, snowfall over plain areas appears unlikely.

Tourist destinations such as Gulmarg and Sonamarg are also expected to receive snowfall, with conditions favourable for light to moderate accumulation. The second western disturbance may prolong snowfall activity over Kupwara’s higher reaches until Tuesday afternoon. With temperatures expected to remain relatively lower between Monday night and Tuesday morning, dry snow is possible if precipitation occurs, and nearby areas of Kupwara district may also be affected.

Jammu region is expected to experience light to moderate rainfall during this time.

The data notes that while overall precipitation is not expected to be high, cold temperatures may lead to higher snow accumulation due to dry snow over elevations above 3,200 metres. Flight operations are not expected to be affected.

Air pollution levels are likely to drop significantly, offering short-term relief, while the risk of forest fires is also expected to reduce considerably. Any changes in the forecast will be updated based on real-time ground observations.