Apple Intelligence’s Real Performance Won’t Arrive for the Next 2–3 Years

Apple Intelligence may not deliver notable performance improvements for another two to three years, according to a recent analysis by Jefferies analyst Edison Lee. This assessment comes as Apple prepares to roll out the initial set of AI features later this month, with a more thorough update to Siri in March 2025 with iOS 18.4.

Lee argues that current smartphone hardware, including iPhones, requires significant improvements before it can support “serious AI” capabilities. He estimates that such advancements are likely to materialize around 2026 or 2027. The analyst cites limitations in high-speed memory and advanced packaging technology as key factors constraining the immediate implementation of more sophisticated AI features in smartphones, as seen at 9to5Mac.

Lee believes Apple has a distinct advantage in delivering high-performance AI due to its integrated hardware-software ecosystem, access to proprietary data, and partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor for technology development and cost management.

While AI may not be the primary driver of iPhone sales in the immediate future, Lee anticipates growth for Apple in 2025. However, he attributes this potential increase more to the rumored release of a slimmer iPhone 17 Air model rather than to advancements in Apple Intelligence.