China’s control of Rare Earths takes center stage ahead of Trump-Xi talks

As President Donald Trump hosts Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for a high-stakes state summit in Washington, deep-seated vulnerabilities in the global technology supply chain threaten to steal the spotlight.

Despite aggressive multi-billion-dollar federal pushes to onshore critical mineral production including heavy backing for domestic miners and processors like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth—the United States will remain reliant on China for rare earths well into the 2030s.

As reported, the dependence remains on China for rare earths well into the 2030s even as it rapidly builds its own mining and processing facilities, a stark imbalance facing U.S. President Donald Trump as he meets on Thursday with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Rare earths, which are among the 60 minerals considered critical by Washington, must be processed before they are turned into magnets and other materials used to make weapons, automobiles, computers and myriad other goods.

The structural imbalance highlights a severe pinch point for the White House.

As China commands up to 70% of global rare-earth mining and over 85% of complex refining operations, wielding a near-monopoly on the separation technology required to produce materials vital for defense systems, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics.

While U.S. output of the two most-commonly used rare earths has more than tripled since Trump returned to office last year, the country can only meet 42% of its demand and within five years will still rely on imports for nearly a quarter of its demand, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a mineral consulting firm.

China, the world's dominant rare earths miner and refiner, last year agreed to delay restrictions on exports until November, 2026.

A temporary bilateral truce suspending Beijing's aggressive export controls is approaching a November 10 deadline, forcing negotiators to address whether to extend the pause or risk severe supply bottlenecks.

A potential extension of those export delays is on the agenda for Xi and Trump when they meet in Washington.

The White House had set its own January 2027 deadline to block imports of Chinese rare earths, a goal that will be all but impossible to meet.