The paradox of declining optimism, By Bolutife Oluwadele

It is often said that hope is the last thing a person loses before giving up finally on all fronts. In essence, hope is sometimes built on incurable optimism. That means hoping against all hopes. Therein lies the paradox of declining optimism. When being optimistic begins to lose flavour, and people begin to hang on to a tiny thread in a somewhat hopeless situation but refuse to acknowledge or recognise the obvious, it is akin to unknowingly living in a fool’s paradise.

Often, we find ourselves in similar situations of self-denial, and masked pessimism, neatly covered in fake heroism of holding forth, irrespective of the prevailing conditions and circumstances. A kind of unreasonable machismo that may eventually crystallise into unmitigated hallucinations, capable of adversely affecting our mental health. The very fabric of our being, we pretentiously are doing everything possible to protect.

How long should we linger on hoping against hopeless situations?

Well, it will depend largely on many factors that may be as diverse and vary as our identities. Factors such as inadequate knowledge, outright denial and pretence, amongst others, may be the determining factors for the duration of failing to acknowledge the obvious.

Why is it difficult to read the handwriting, sooner than later?

Sometimes, the convictions about the possible light at the end of the tunnel may fuel the resilience not to give up too quickly. Unfortunately, having a blurry vision of a possible unending tunnel winding to no assured destination, may not necessarily awaken us to the most logical conclusion on time. The more we linger on, the less we become realistic of the currency of our optimism. Or we all together begin to recline in interrogating our held views about the correct pathways to getting out of our profound ‘convictions’ about “it shall be well”. Do not get me wrong, the concept of it shall be well, solid and genuine beyond mere the religious optimism attributed to it. There are benefits of foresight, even past trends that may occasion the reaching of such fundamental conclusions. However, there are times when such is hinged on unfounded but highly emotional profundity. Irrespective of the basis for believing that it shall be well, it plays a critical role in shaping our thoughts not to give up so soon. It propels us with its twin assertion that “this also shall come to pass”. It is the belief in the power of time to reverse, rejig and realign things to make them better that should not be dismissive as also critical to not wanting to focus on the storm, but more on the destination.

Again, the desire or perhaps the fear of being attributed to some form of cowardice, by giving up too soon may be another propelling factor not to ‘overthink’ the situation as it is currently, but to look with foresight into the ‘feasible’ eldorado when the current situation would be thrown into the dust bins of unpalatable eras.

Sincerely speaking, some elements of confusion can also creep in. This is like situation of some kind of conflict between the heart and the head. The heart remains optimistic, but the head is sending some discordant notes. In the struggle to find the equilibrium between the two, depending on which has the upper hand may lead to unmitigated confusion. It is just like someone in love who is oblivion to somewhat red flags because we want to make the love works. Nothing good comes cheap may be what the heart is saying, even when the head is advising contrary that caution should be applied or that we should thread carefully. Anyone who has ever been caught in this quagmire will relate better. This is not to undermine those who have turned around seemingly ugly situations into something worthy of emulation through the tenacity of following the heart with its associated risks.

And talking about risks. Within the premises of “nobody knows tomorrow”, there is no unassailable way, however, proven that may be always followed by everyone. Even within the concept of risk evaluation and mitigations, there are many detours, that become visible only when we get to ‘the bridge’ to cross. No amount of carefulness and preparation can always guarantee success at the end of the day.

Looking at it from the perspective of “nothing ventured, nothing gains” can also make being ‘unnecessarily’ pessimistic a bad taste in the mouth. Either way, we cannot run away, as humans from taking risks, willingly or unwillingly. When it turns out well, we are good, and we celebrate the outcome. If it turns out otherwise, we either brood over the failure and waste valuable time or learn from the errors and decide better in the future.

But should optimism be cast in stone?

As good as being optimistic is, there is the need for critical assessment continually to evaluate or reevaluate the basis ab initio for such optimism. In case the basis has expired or liquidated, or a major shift has occurred, then we should be courageous to reverse our optimism.

Should optimism be solid only if we have substantial control over certain parameters that form the basis of our optimism?

Let for the sake of argument, our ‘trust’ and ‘hope’ that a government or a regime will perform well irrespective of the challenges that confront them. The fundamentals here are largely because of party affiliations, records of key personae in the regime, and some sense of history of similar occurrences in the past. Also, extreme external influences, such as global meltdowns, amongst many could be responsible for the unbridled optimism that a government or a regime will always come through and deliver, no matter what. While may be regarded as absurd risks absorption when you are not directly involved in birthing the expected outcomes. Also, we may not altogether dismiss the plausibility of such confidence reposed on a government, despite the possibility of contrary outcomes from expectations.

But there is nothing wrong with being optimistic about anything.

Yes, there may be nothing wrong with being optimistic sometimes. However, we should be alive to understand that when the basis for such optimism is becoming blurry or unlikely to occur, to take the necessary detour before it is too late. We should have the courage to switch completely to our head if we think our heart is leading us in a possible wrong direction. Our hearts and heads cannot be wrong at the same time.

Could they possibly be?

That may not be too easy an answer to the question.

On the other hand, can we possibly assert that once there is an alignment between the heart and the head, the outcomes will always be celebrative? What if alignment happens at the beginning, but somehow along the way, misalignment occurs, do we still hold on to the initial alignment and patch up the new misalignment? The safest thing to do, if misalignment occurs may be to pause, reevaluate, reassess and decide if to keep moving, change direction, or discard the optimism altogether.

The bottom line, perhaps, is if only we knew, we would have made the right decisions most of the time. But we cannot always know, or we may pretend not to know, once we have decided to possibly ‘avoid’ unnecessary derailing from our focus.

Hence, in my opinion, lies the paradox of a declining optimism that may be overwhelmingly confusing and test our ability to hold on despite stormy situations that may be a trial or sign of failure ultimately. May we not hold on unnecessarily to situations, especially when the ‘red flags’ steer us in our faces.

Bolutife Oluwadele is a chartered accountant, author, and public policy scholar based in Canada. He is the author of Thoughts of A Village Boy. Email: bolutife.oluwadele@gmail.com