Commentary: Russia’s new jet‑powered drones mark latest evolution in air war above Ukraine

The air war over Ukraine has become more stand-off in nature, say academics.

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LONDON: The air war between Russia and Ukraine has evolved constantly since the start of the conflict. The latest example is Russia’s deployment of a new type of long-range, jet-powered drone, which is having a significant effect on Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities against aerial attack.

In an interview on Sep 14, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat told the Financial Times that Ukraine was intercepting only about 60 per cent of attacks by the new Geran-5 drone. This compares with the 95 per cent interception rate Ukraine’s air defences achieve against other drone variants.

The Geran-5’s cylindrical fuselage and straight wings make its profile closer to that of a cruise missile than a conventional long-range drone. Russian sources indicate it has a range of up to 1,000km and a maximum operating altitude of around 6,000m, which is higher than earlier drones.

Geran-5 drones also travel faster than previous models, with an estimated top speed of about 600kmh. And unlike earlier variants, these drones are fitted with anti-jamming capabilities. Together, this makes them particularly difficult for Ukraine’s ground-based air defences to intercept.

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Inhat said Ukraine has been forced into the “very intensive use” of its fighter jets since Russia began using the Geran-5 in August, with pilots shooting down these drones directly.

But the effectiveness of the Geran-5 extends beyond its speed and range. According to Yuri Knutov, a Russian military expert, these drones incorporate machine vision linked to a digital terrain map, which enables them to identify and select targets autonomously.

RAPID EVOLUTION OF DRONE CAPABILITIES

Immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the air war over Ukraine followed expected lines, with both sides relying heavily on combat aircraft. These aircraft had two specific roles: to engage opposing aircraft directly, and to strike targets in support of forces on the ground.

However, the situation soon changed. With air defence systems taking such a toll on aircraft from both sides, the air war over Ukraine became more stand-off in nature. More long-range tactics were employed instead.

From 2023, the Russians in particular came to make full use of the glide bomb. These bombs, fitted with stabilising wings and navigation aids, could be launched around 70km away from their target, beyond the reach of most anti-aircraft defences. They represented a less risky means of delivering ordnance to the battlefield.

However, drones swiftly became the dominant tool of air power. They have no crews to risk and, given their relative simplicity, can be produced at low cost in large numbers. Smaller drone variants have been used by both sides close to the frontlines, while larger, long-range drones have struck targets deeper inside Ukraine and Russia.

The issue with the earlier long-range drone variants was that they were relatively easy to shoot down. This is because, being propeller-driven, they are slow. For several years, the principal Russian long-range drones have been the propeller-driven Geran-1 and Geran-2 – upgraded Russian copies of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone.

The first jet-powered drone, the Geran-3, was deployed in 2025. It was significantly faster than the Geran-2, travelling at 330kmh compared with the Geran 2’s 185km/h. While it had a considerably shorter range of just 600km, against the Geran-2’s possible 2,500km, it could fly higher, reducing its vulnerability to air defences.

Later that year, the jet-powered Geran-4 appeared in the skies above Ukraine with an increased top speed of 500kmh and range of 850km. And in August, the Geran-5, with its faster speed and even longer range, was first used operationally by Russian forces.

FOREIGN TECHNOLOGIES

Ukraine’s military intelligence service has published details of the components identified in the Geran-5 drone, highlighting the extent to which its supply chain draws on foreign technologies. These include a Chinese-supplied jet engine, digital processors made in the US and transistors manufactured in Germany.

The component list suggests Russia has established resilient supply chains that enable it to circumvent Western sanctions and procure commercially available technologies from multiple countries, before manufacturing the final system domestically.

Russia is also able to mass-produce these new jet-powered drones. Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia is prioritising Geran-4 and Geran-5 production in order to build up stocks ahead of an autumn and winter campaign against Ukraine.

This may prove devastating, as Ukraine is running low on its stock of Western-supplied Patriot ground-to-air and air-to-air missiles. These missiles are the only truly effective means of shooting down the Geran-5 drone.

Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, relayed these fears in August. He announced that Ukraine now needed new interceptor missiles “with the appropriate speed” to intercept the latest jet-powered Gerans.

Marina Miron is Postdoctoral Researcher, War Studies Department at King's College London. Rod Thornton is Senior Lecturer in International Studies, Defence and Security at King's College London. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.

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