Israel’s killing of Nasrallah: Who could be Hezbollah’s new leader, and how will Iran react?
The death of Nasrallah, who has commanded Hezbollah for 32 years, is the most significant blow to the Iran-backed group after months of fighting.
by Darrelle Ng · CNA · JoinIsrael’s killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will have repercussions not only in Lebanon, but across the region, as the weakened militant group scrambles to reorganise, analysts said.
Nasrallah has commanded Hezbollah for more than three decades. His death marks the most significant blow to the Iran-backed group after months of fighting.
Amid continued air strikes from Israel, the group now needs to name a new leadership while the region braces for an escalation of tensions that could spill over into a wider war.
“For years, Nasrallah and his aides were ruling Hezbollah, and ruling a large part of Lebanon. This is a game changer… not only in Lebanon or in Iran, but also in nearby countries and the whole Middle East,” said Dr Cedomir Nestorovic, a geopolitics professor at the ESSEC Business School’s Asia Pacific campus.
Israel’s military said on Saturday (Sep 28) that Nasrallah had been killed in air strikes on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut a day earlier. Hezbollah later confirmed Nasrallah’s death.
Israel added that the air strikes also killed an unspecified number of other Hezbollah commanders.
WHO WILL SUCCEED NASRALLAH?
The man widely regarded as Nasrallah's successor is his cousin Hashem Safieddine.
He oversees Hezbollah's political affairs and civilian operations including its education and financial system.
The 60-year-old has been on the United States’ terror list since 2017.
In recent years, Nasrallah has rarely been seen in public and is often represented by Safieddine. This includes the funerals of the group’s high-ranking members who were killed in last week’s coordinated detonation of communication devices, largely blamed on Israel.
With many of the group’s commanders killed in Friday’s airstrike, Nestorovic said new leadership could also come from outside Lebanon, including from Iran, or Syria and Iraq, where Hezbollah has strong alliances with other Iran-backed militant groups.
HOW WILL IRAN REACT?
While there are expectations of reprisal from Iran, Nestorovic said Tehran has a track record of poor retaliation in previous incidents.
He pointed to muted reaction from Iran over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, as well as the pager blasts. Iran usually makes strongly-worded threats but takes little action.
“I'm not so sure that Iran will react strongly, because there would be retaliation from Israel and (its allies),” he told CNA’s Asia Now.
James Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that Iran is in a bind: Tehran wants to rebuild bridges to get relief from sanctions but it also does not want to be seen as weak – particularly by its allies – if it does not respond.
“For Iran to calibrate a response in a way that does not lead to escalation is going to be very difficult and a tightrope,” he said, adding that both Iran and Hezbollah do not want an all-out war with Israel.
WHAT WILL ISRAEL DO NEXT?
Dorsey said that Israel is likely to continue its campaign in Lebanon. Israel could be looking to target the next layer of leadership – including Safieddine, and is also expected to focus on degrading Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal.
Nestorovic took a more positive stance, saying Israel likely reached its goal of crippling Hezbollah’s command and could be looking at negotiation with the group’s new leadership when it is formed.
Israel has said its air strikes in Lebanon aims to stop Hezbollah’s aerial attacks across the border, which has displaced about 60,000 residents from Israel’s north.
Hezbollah has been launching near-daily rockets and drones on northern Israel since Oct 8 last year, in solidarity with Hamas, a day after the latter’s unprecedented incursion into Israel ignited the current war in Gaza.
“I don't think (Israel) will push their advantage, because the aim has been clear from the beginning: They want to be sure that no one from Lebanon can attack Israel,” said Nestorovic.
“If there is a reorganisation of Hezbollah and Israel manages to get some kind of deal with Hezbollah not to attack the northern part of Israel, I think they will stop.”
WHAT’S NEXT IN THE CONFLICT?
While Hezbollah has been dealt severe blows, Dorsey pointed out that it has a history of leaders being targeted and killed by Israel. In fact, Nasrallah's predecessor Abbas al-Musawi was also killed by Israel in 1992.
“Yet, these organisations (Hezbollah and Hamas) have survived and have grown,” said Dorsey.
Nestorovic cautioned that Hezbollah still wields a sizable arsenal and a loyal following.
“I don't think that Hezbollah has been eliminated – far from that. They still have the missiles, they still have tens of thousands of people who are ready to fight and die for Hezbollah, so their force is still present,” he said.
He added that it now depends on Hezbollah’s new leadership’s approach and if both sides are willing to negotiate.
Dorsey added that a ceasefire in Gaza is still the elusive key for peace to prevail.
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