Ukraine Cuts Chinese Drone Dependence, But Critical Gaps Remain
by Matthew Fulco · Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty · JoinOn October 17-18, Ukrainian forces launched more than 1,000 drones deep into Russian territory, striking major energy and industrial infrastructure in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.
The bulk of that force was built on the FP-1 long-range strike platform developed by Fire Point, one of Ukraine's largest drone makers. The company produces 200-260 drones a day, with 90 percent of components sourced domestically and the rest drawn from European and allied country supply chains. Fire Point deliberately tries to avoid using parts from China, the world’s largest drone manufacturer.
This marks a sharp departure from 2022, the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, when Ukraine relied almost entirely on Chinese components.
While Ukraine has cut its Chinese imports sharply -- China accounted for just 28 percent of direct drone imports as of the end of August, according to Ukrainian customs data -- it still relies on Beijing for essential components that remain difficult to replace at the necessary scale and cost.
The main reasons for Ukraine’s rapid transition to greater UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) self-sufficiency are “capital and contracts,” said Catarina Buchatskiy, co-founder and analytics director of the Kyiv-based Serpens Center for International Security. Driven by war necessity and government defense-tech initiatives such as Brave1, Ukraine rapidly built a drone industry from the ground up. With demand high, firms were able to raise significant capital. They discovered, that in many cases, “it’s less efficient to import and managed to reinvest their own revenue into local manufacturing,” Buchatskiy said.
Because Ukraine “is using drones day in and day out, they are able to rapidly iterate on them,” Ali Javaheri, a senior emerging technology analyst at private markets data firm PitchBook in New York, said in an interview. “They’re not testing this stuff on some government property in Arizona. There’s a live battlefield.”
China inadvertently accelerated Ukraine’s drone localization initiative with export restrictions imposed in 2023 (on long-range drones) and 2024 (on certain components). Though the export controls targeted both Ukraine and Russia -- China claimed it did not want its drones being used in warfare -- Moscow has barely been affected given its “no limits” partnership with Beijing. Chinese companies that bypass the restrictions to supply Russia with drone parts rarely face prosecution at home. Kyiv responded to those export restrictions by ramping up domestic production and sourcing from more reliable partner countries.
Balancing Risks And Costs
Ukraine, however, continues to rely on China for certain drone components. These include sensors and lenses for thermal cameras, battery cells, electric motor materials, and some microelectronics.
“Alternatives exist, but, for now, the quantities are insufficient to supply millions of drones,” Olena Kryzhanivska, a Toronto-based defense analyst and author of the Ukraine Arms Monitor newsletter, told RFE/RL.
When it comes to the raw materials used in these components, China is hard to replace. Case in point: China accounts for 60 percent of the world’s production of germanium, a critical mineral used in infrared optics and thermal camera lenses. Beijing has also imposed tight restrictions on germanium exports. It can produce these camera components at a much lower cost than European competitors.
Similarly, China has weaponized its dominance of rare-earth magnets, a foundational component of modern drone motors. Since Ukraine -- and indeed Europe overall -- cannot yet produce the magnets at scale, Ukrainian drone manufacturers have had to get creative to circumvent Beijing’s export controls. They use third-party intermediaries or route shipments through multi-country supply chains.
Europe is expected to reach commercial-scale rare earth magnet production by the early 2030s. However, analysts still expect that European magnets will be 15 percent to 30 percent pricier than China’s.
“The ability to diversify hinges on the ability to source drone components outside China at a cost that makes it sustainable,” emerging technology analyst Javaheri said.
Within the Ukrainian defense industry, some insiders say that Ukraine can tolerate continued dependency on China given the urgency of its security needs. “The Ukrainians do not care if they are using Chinese parts. They just want to get things in the air,” said a defense industry executive speaking anonymously at a recent closed-door event in the US.
Collaborating With Taiwan
To further reduce its dependence on China for drone components, Ukraine is cultivating partnerships with democratic countries. Among them, Taiwan stands out for combining advanced manufacturing acumen -- it is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors -- with a shared strategic need with Ukraine to build supply chains free of Chinese inputs.
According to Taiwan’s state-funded Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), Ukrainian companies use Taiwanese flight controllers, batteries, motors, cameras, and other microelectronic components. More recently, their interest in Taiwan-made drone components has expanded to sensors, single-mode optical fiber, and jet engines.
In May, a delegation from Ukrainian drone association IRON, led by chief executive Volodymyr Cherniuk, visited Taiwan to meet with potential business partners.
Thunder Tiger, one of Taiwan’s most prominent UAV manufacturers, has sent drone systems to Ukraine for field-testing and evaluation. Kunway Technology, another Taiwanese drone company, already exports two different models to Ukraine via Poland.
Potential exists for more closely intertwined production between Taiwan and Ukraine, but several issues must be resolved first. On the one hand, “Ukraine-Taiwan co-production remains nascent because Taiwan's drone industry is still relatively nascent,” Michael Cunningham, a senior fellow in the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, told RFE/RL.
Taiwan exported about 242,000 drones in the first half of 2026, according to its Economy Ministry. During that same time period, Ukrainian defense agencies built and deployed nearly 2.5 million drones.
Political considerations limit cooperation as well, given Ukraine’s lack of diplomatic relations with Taipei and Beijing’s hypersensitivity about Taiwan-related matters. “Ukraine's relationship with China is particularly delicate, not only because China is Ukraine's largest trading partner and could do serious economic damage if it wanted to but also because of Beijing's close partnership with Russia,” Cunningham said. “This gives Ukraine incentive to try to reduce dependency on China, but it has to be smart about how it does this.”
The need for low-key defense cooperation between Kyiv and Taipei may explain why 93 percent of Taiwan’s drone exports in the first half of the year went to Poland and the Czech Republic --though neither country is deploying drones at anywhere near the rate of Ukraine.
DSET analysts Cathy Fang and Samara Duerr note that Taiwan’s customs data records the declared export destination, not the final end user. “It therefore cannot establish how many of these drones were subsequently transferred to Ukraine. Our assessment that some of these trade flows are associated with Ukrainian demand is based primarily on industry interviews,” they told RFE/RL.
Looking ahead, analysts expect Ukraine to step up cooperation with Taiwan and other democratic partners as China further tightens its drone export controls.
On October 19, Beijing announced new restrictions that will go into effect on November 18. The new measures will further squeeze Ukraine's drone industry by curbing the export of key components like specialized drone engines, brushless motors, electronic speed controllers, and carbon fiber blades.
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement that the updated export controls "fully demonstrate China's firm opposition to the illicit use of drones for non-peaceful purposes" and aim to "safeguard national security and interests.”
Ukraine Cuts Chinese Drone Dependence, But Critical Gaps Remain
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