Navigating the Paradox of Certainty and Uncertainty

Why seeking answers holds us back—and embracing the unknown drives growth.

Reviewed by Tyler Woods

"Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one." This quote, often attributed to French philosopher Voltaire, captures the delicate and often paradoxical relationship humans have with the concepts of certainty and uncertainty. At first glance, the discomfort of uncertainty is evident. Yet, the notion that certainty could be considered absurd invites a deeper exploration of the cognitive processes and psychological dynamics at play.

The Desire for Certainty

From an evolutionary standpoint, humans are wired to seek patterns and consistency in their environment. This inclination helped our ancestors survive by allowing them to predict potential dangers, identify food sources, and understand the behavior of others. The psychological need for certainty can be seen in several cognitive heuristics, which are mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making. While these shortcuts are useful, they can also lead to cognitive biases, or systematic errors in thinking.

One of the most prominent biases tied to certainty is confirmation bias. This is the tendency to favor information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs while dismissing or ignoring contradictory evidence. Confirmation bias provides a sense of stability, as it reinforces what we already believe to be true. However, it can also limit our ability to consider alternative perspectives, leading to a distorted view of reality.

Another related cognitive bias is the illusion of control. This bias refers to the tendency to overestimate our ability to control events, even when they are influenced by factors beyond our control. By convincing ourselves that we have more control than we actually do, we derive a sense of certainty and predictability. For example, individuals may believe that wearing a specific piece of clothing or following a particular routine will influence the outcome of a sports game, even though these actions have no real effect on the game itself.

The Discomfort of Uncertainty

While the human brain may crave certainty, it is often faced with ambiguity and unpredictability. Uncertainty can trigger a range of emotional responses, with anxiety being the most common. When faced with uncertainty, people often experience intolerance of uncertainty, a psychological trait where uncertainty is perceived as highly distressing and threatening. Research suggests that individuals with a high intolerance of uncertainty are more prone to anxiety disorders, such as generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), where they excessively worry about uncertain or ambiguous situations (Dugas et al., 1998).

This discomfort with uncertainty can also lead to what psychologists call the need for cognitive closure. This need drives individuals to seek quick and definitive answers, especially in ambiguous or stressful situations. When cognitive closure is achieved, it alleviates the discomfort of not knowing, even if the answers reached are not necessarily accurate. For instance, in the face of a complex political issue, a person with a high need for cognitive closure might gravitate toward a simplistic explanation, overlooking nuances in favor of clear-cut conclusions.

However, the pursuit of certainty comes at a cost. By clinging to premature conclusions, individuals may become less open to new information, resistant to change, and less likely to engage in deep, critical thinking. The need for certainty can thus paradoxically limit growth, learning, and personal development, ultimately leading to a rigid worldview.

The Absurdity of Certainty

While uncertainty can lead to discomfort, clinging to certainty can result in overconfidence. This tendency is illustrated by the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where individuals with limited knowledge in a domain overestimate their competence (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). The effect is named after psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, who found that individuals with low competence tend to rate their abilities higher than more knowledgeable peers. This is because a lack of knowledge also impairs the ability to recognize one's own limitations.

The Dunning-Kruger effect demonstrates the absurdity of absolute certainty. Those who are confident in their incorrect beliefs are less likely to seek out new information or consider alternative viewpoints, making them more vulnerable to errors in judgment. As a result, certainty, while offering temporary psychological comfort, can lead to flawed decisions and missed opportunities for growth.

Embracing Uncertainty

Though the discomfort of uncertainty is natural, learning to accept and even embrace uncertainty can have significant benefits for personal and intellectual growth. Two concepts that help frame this approach are growth mindset and intellectual humility.

A growth mindset refers to the belief that abilities and intelligence can be developed through effort, learning, and perseverance (Dweck, 2006). Unlike a fixed mindset, where abilities are seen as static, a growth mindset encourages individuals to see challenges and uncertainty as opportunities for learning. This mindset allows people to embrace uncertainty without fear, as it shifts the focus from proving oneself to improving oneself.

Intellectual humility, on the other hand, involves recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and being open to new ideas. It is a key component of critical thinking, allowing individuals to hold beliefs with an appropriate degree of tentativeness and to adjust their views when presented with new evidence. Intellectual humility encourages a balanced approach to certainty and uncertainty: one can be confident in their knowledge while remaining open to revising their beliefs in light of new information.

Individuals with higher levels of intellectual humility are more likely to engage in epistemic curiosity, a desire to seek out information and deepen their understanding of the world. By embracing uncertainty, they cultivate a mindset that values exploration over rigid certainty, allowing for greater adaptability in the face of change.

The Psychological Benefits of Tolerating Uncertainty

Tolerating uncertainty can foster resilience and flexibility in a rapidly changing world. When individuals learn to accept that not everything is within their control, they become better equipped to manage stress and adapt to unpredictable situations. This shift in perspective allows for the development of psychological flexibility, which involves adapting one’s thoughts and behaviors to new situations and challenges. Psychological flexibility enables individuals to focus on what they can control rather than becoming paralyzed by what they cannot.

Moreover, embracing uncertainty can enhance creativity and problem-solving skills. When individuals are not constrained by the desire for immediate closure, they are more likely to explore alternative solutions and think outside the box. This openness to uncertainty can lead to innovative ideas and a greater willingness to take calculated risks.

Finding Balance

By accepting uncertainty as a natural part of life, we release the burden of needing all the answers, fostering a more adaptive and resilient mindset in the face of challenges. Though uncertainty may always carry a degree of discomfort, embracing it can reshape how we perceive the world and ourselves. This shift in perspective allows us to view the unknown not as a threat but as an opportunity—one that invites continuous learning, exploration, and growth. In embracing uncertainty, we unlock a path to lifelong discovery, where every moment becomes a chance to evolve and adapt in an ever-changing world.