Tesla’s Next Move: Model 2 Or Model Y Juniper?

There’s already lots of buzz around the expected Model Y Juniper update and now a leading analyst says that a Model 2 reveal may happen at a Tesla event on October 10.

The 2025 Model 2 — a “stripped down Model 3”? Tesla’s much-hyped (mostly by CEO Elon Musk) $25,000-$30,000 vehicle could be a topic next week at Tesla’s autonomous electric ride-hailing taxi aka “We, Robot” event at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, Calif. on October 10, according to Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management.

“I'm looking for 3 vehicles (most are expecting two) and I believe we'll only hear production timing on the Model 2, which I expect to begin late in 2025,” according to an October 4 note from the investment firm. “This timing is a few months later than what Elon's comments suggested on the June earnings call. The one wild card could be the more affordable Model 2 is actually a stripped down Model 3, which would be viewed as a negative by investors,” the note said.

Though Tesla CEO Elon Musk often fudges on delivery dates, a more affordable vehicle does appear to be in the works. “We are on track to deliver a more affordable model in the first half of next year,” he said during the company’s second quarter earnings conference call. Though not officially named by Tesla, analysts often use the Model 2 moniker to identify the car.

And the Model 2 could be connected to what Tesla announces at the upcoming October event even if Musk doesn’t specifically mention the future affordable Tesla. “The vehicle to be introduced may have dual purpose for consumer sales and robotaxi use,” Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility, told me, referring to a future low-cost Tesla. Meaning the car could be part and parcel of Tesla’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle strategy.

Musk is on the record about this. “We're convinced we can make a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous," he said in 2020.

The 2025 Model Y Juniper: In the wake of the 2024 Model 3 refresh, the Tesla faithful are waiting for the next iteration of the Model Y. The Tesla SUV is the top-selling electric vehicle in the U.S. — and one of the most ubiquitous cars in U.S. urban areas like Los Angeles — and one of best-selling cars in the world. It was unveiled in 2019.

There was lots of speculation this summer after a Reddit post seemed to show a future Model Y in black wrap. And subsequent “leaks” purport to show a new Model Y with a rear light bar.

One thing is certain, however. It is imperative for Tesla to update the Model Y, whose design is getting long in the tooth. “Tesla is now delivering vehicle volumes like a legacy automaker, and legacy automakers know that a fresh lineup is what keeps customers coming back,” Joseph Yoon, Edmunds' consumer insights analyst, told me in July.

Model Y Juniper may mirror the Model 3 refresh: the Model 3 refresh likely offers clues to the Model Y that would launch in 2025.

• Performance: The Model 3 Performance has more horsepower (up to 510 hp) and does 0–60 mph in 2.9 seconds.
• Front: The front end has a sleeker hood (bump removed) and low-profile headlights for better aerodynamics.
• Ride: “Frequency response dampeners” which provide a smoother ride in the refreshed Model 3.
• Tires: Upgraded tires and wheels for increased range and less noise.
• Seats: Ventilated seats.
• Cabin: A quieter cabin due to 360-degree acoustic glass, i.e., all of the windows are made of acoustic (double-glazed) glass now, not just the windshield and front side glass.
• Screen: A rear entertainment screen for passengers that allows gaming, streaming, and climate control.
• Stalkless: Removal of the stalks on the steering wheel, moving physical controls to thumb buttons on the steering wheel
• Controls: More software (display-based) controls such as a gear selector integrated into the touch screen.
• Sound: Upgraded sound system.
• Hardware 4 (HW4): Expected to feature the latest Hardware 4, bringing improvements in computing power and sensor capabilities for Autopilot and FSD.
• Motor: Possibly improved motors such as a more efficient rear motor.

And other possible upgrades not inspired by Model 3 refresh:

• Rear: Updated taillights and bumper, a rumor points to a rear light bar.
• Cameras: An additional camera might be integrated into the front bumper for enhanced Autopilot and FSD capabilities — but don’t get your hopes up.
• Battery: potentially a larger battery pack (sketchy rumors point to a massive 95 kWh battery) that could boost range significantly. Currently the largest battery pack in the Model Y is 75 kWh. And, needless to say, Tesla is constantly improving its battery technology so it’s almost guaranteed that new battery tech in the Model Y Juniper will be more efficient = more miles per kilowatt hour (kWh).