Why I Am On The Fence About Foldable Smartphones

One of the more interesting smartphone developments has been foldable models, which began appearing about six years ago. The Royale FlexPai was the first foldable, introduced in October 2018. However, Samsung's Galaxy Fold jumpstarted the foldable smartphone market in February 2019.

Since then, over a dozen folding smartphones have been launched. However, the market for foldable phones is still developing. It has potential, but the makers of foldable phones had hoped for something else.

According to Statista, 1.2 billion smartphones will be sold in 2024. However, only about 25 million foldables will be sold in the same year.

A new YouGov Survey sheds some light on the potential of the foldable smartphone market and the reasons they have only had mild success.

Key Findings from this survey:

High Interest Among Young Adults:

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-83% of Americans aged 18-29 and 76% of those aged 30-44 are interested in foldable smartphones.

-Overall, 59% of smartphone owners are intrigued by the technology.

Features That Drive Interest:

-Battery life (75%) and price (69%) top the list of must-haves.

-Durability (67%) and high-quality displays (66%) are also major priorities.

-Advanced camera features (41%) and multitasking capabilities (34%) add appeal.

Barriers to Adoption:

-Durability concerns (56%) and cost (53%) are the biggest drawbacks for skeptics.

-40% see no significant advantage over traditional smartphones, while 29% worry about bulkiness.

These stats provide a real problem for companies that make foldables today and could make them in the future. While there is interest in them, especially from a younger crowd, their cost and durability are significant concerns.

In terms of what would be considered a sizable market for foldable phones, it would need to reach at least 100 million units a year based on the number of major players like Apple who would consider entering this market with a foldable iPhone.

However, Statista's rosiest market projection for foldable phones is that 45.7 million will be sold in 2028. There is still no big market for foldable phones, and forecasts are only mildly encouraging, so I am still on the fence about them.

I have used many foldable smartphones, and my biggest gripe was durability. The first model I tested cost almost $2,000 at launch, and within three months of using it, I could see the seams of the fold, which impacted the images and information I saw on the screen itself. On other early models I tested, battery issues and screen problems were prevalent. Only the more recent models have much better folding screen technology and battery life, which bodes well for those considering a folding phone.

I have been using the newest Motorola Razr+, which is a considerable improvement over earlier models and is on par with flip phones by Samsung and others. But to be honest, this is my Android phone. My main phone, and the one I use the most, is my iPhone 16 Pro Max.

I do understand that, as the YouGov survey pointed out, I am not in the demographic most likely to buy a foldable today. As a market researcher who looks at data that points to major market trends and product potential, the outlook for foldable phones pales in comparison to traditional smartphones that sell over one billion units a year around the world.

I have followed Apple for over 40 years. I have been asked numerous times if I thought Apple would ever make a folding iPhone. My answer has consistently been that while I am certain Apple has various foldable versions of the iPhone in research labs, the market for foldable devices is still too small for them to make the kind of investment required to bring one to market.

Apple would need to be sure they could sell at least 30-40 million foldable iPhones a year to make the investment necessary to bring one to market. And if you look at Statista's 2028 projection of only 45.7 million foldables being sold worldwide, it is reasonable to believe Apple will pass on this market. By their standards, it is not a big enough market for them to invest in foldables.

On the other hand, I could see them using all of the research they are doing with foldables and applying it to one of their future iPad designs. I believe there is a lot of room for design innovation in tablets, and given Apple's leadership role in this area, it might make sense for them to add a foldable design to this line of products.

This is wishful thinking, as I am a big fan of the iPad Mini. But sometimes, I would like a bigger screen on this smaller, lighter iPad, especially when watching a movie or video.

Some consumers may be interested in the foldable smartphone market that uses current technology, even with their high prices. Still, more interest is needed to make foldables a significant part of the smartphone market today or in the future.

Disclosure: Apple, Samsung and Motorola subscribe to Creative Strategies research reports along with many other high tech companies around the world.