Freeze Risks Despite A Warming World: Avoid Million-Dollar Losses

With average global temperatures rising, are cold weather hazards a thing of the past?

Quite to the contrary. Deep freeze is still a very potent risk for Northern Hemisphere businesses through the middle latitudes. Even amid an overall warming climate, very low temperatures are possible and should be expected in otherwise warmer regions. One cause is the polar vortex, a pattern that brings very cold temperatures to normally warmer areas in the South. This phenomenon is not particularly rare or new, and it is happening about once every other year, as it has since the 1950s.

Abnormally low temperatures can cause water damage due to burst pipes, loss of power and heat, and business disruption. The most impactful recent case affected the central U.S., most severely in Texas, in February 2021, interrupting a natural gas supply that fueled power plants and heated buildings.

Polar vortices change the game

The polar vortex was an important part of the Texas freeze recipe. In a disrupted polar vortex, air that generally swirls in a circular pattern around the north pole becomes distorted, pushing the jet stream of cold artic air to the south.

The Associated Press said of polar vortices at the time of the Texas freeze: “Meteorologists call it one of the biggest, nastiest and longest-lasting ones they’ve seen, and they’ve been watching since at least the 1950s.”

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Although the annual average temperature is clearly increasing, record low temperatures still occur. The blue dots in the Southeast on the map below are locations where the coldest temperature of the year has dropped since the early 20^th century. Many of these places see some of the hottest weather in the country, but are recently experiencing up to a 4 degrees Fahrenheit reduction in record lows that is sometimes clearly attributable to the occurrence of a polar vortex phenomenon.

El Niño and La Niña

Also affecting general temperature patterns in North America are the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of climate patterns that occur due to changes in the ocean temperature near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The cycle occurs at irregular intervals and changes on average every 2 to 7 years. In general, La Niña tends to move the polar jet stream more toward the southern U.S., even without occurrence of a polar vortex. NOAA predicts a “slowly developing La Niña” in late 2024 with below-average temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains:

Although the planet was in a “triple-dip La Niña” condition during the Texas freeze, longer-term review of records, combined with best available models, don’t show a definitive connection between polar vortex events and either ENSO cycle. Hence, its best to prepare regardless of general weather trends.

‘Bomb Cyclone’ explodes

Christmas 2022 brought more grief in the form of Winter Storm Elliott, a bomb cyclone that knocked out power to millions in the Eastern U.S. “The unplanned loss of generation due to freezing and fuel issues was unprecedented, reflecting the extraordinary interconnectedness of the gas and electric systems and their combined vulnerability to extreme weather,” said Willie Phillips, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The event was the fifth in the past 11 years in which unplanned cold weather-related generation outages jeopardized grid reliability, FERC reported. That means businesses should have a plan to provide backup heat and power to keep their facilities functional.

Healthcare, education, retail and residential most at risk

During a recent 10-year period, non-manufacturing facilities accounted for nearly 9 in 10 freeze-related incidents reported by my company’s clients with an average gross loss of $545,000 each. Although less common, the impact to manufacturing was much greater, with average gross losses of $1.3 million. Like any area-wide event, repair firms, and some insurers, are swamped with calls afterwards; hence, recovery time can be slow.

The majority of these losses are easily preventable with a pre-winter inspection; a few extra preventative measures; careful monitoring of the weather, the building and systems; and responding quickly. Common causes of freeze loss may include something as simple leaving windows and doors open or failing to replace insulation after a repair. Inadequate insulation can expose pipes along outside walls to freezing temperatures, leading to water damage when they burst and lack of fire protection when sprinkler pipes leak. Holiday breaks, when the heating system is turned down and personnel are absent, are a high-risk time for freeze incidents.

Ensure pipes along exterior walls are properly insulated and install heating tape if needed. Purchase fire-safe portable heaters for cold-weather emergencies, and never shut down operations entirely during cold weather. Establish a weather watch where employees continually monitor and inspect the building and equipment during freeze conditions. Install and monitor freeze detectors to flag problems with pipes before they get serious, and use leak detection to find problems as early as possible.

Process-intensive businesses should have a pre-freeze checklist that is tailored to their equipment. Specialty equipment often uses instrument air that is prone to freezing; hence, instrument air dryers should be sized to avoid condensation and subsequent freeze damage.

Average temperatures are rising, but very cold temperatures still occur. Current weather forecasting techniques are good at identifying ensuing low temperatures, including those associated with a disrupted polar vortex, well in advance. Take the right measures early when freezing temperatures are imminent to avoid the dreaded half-million-dollar loss.