Northern Lights Thanksgiving Alert: The U.S. States Forecast Aurora Tonight

The Northern Lights may be seen overnight on Thursday, Nov. 28 — Thanksgiving in North America — and early on Friday, Nov. 29 from northern-tier U.S. states after space weather forecasters predicted two successive geomagnetic storms.

According to experts, aurora displays may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Clear skies will be required to have any chance of seeing the potential display.

It’s the result of a coronal mass ejection — a cloud of charged particles hurled in Earth’s direction from the sun — in the wake of a M9.4-class solar flare on Monday, Nov. 25.

Northern Lights Forecast: When And Where On Thanksgiving

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts that a G1 geomagnetic storm will strike Earth between 1:00 and 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday and strengthen to a G2 geomagnetic storm between 10 p.m. EST on Thursday and 1:00 a.m. EST on Friday.

According to NOAA, G1 storms can be seen from Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine, while G2 storms from New York and central Idaho.

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Northern Lights Tonight: What To Expect

The potential displays of aurora borealis tonight have a predicted maximum Kp index of 5.67, which provides a rough guide to their intensity. The Kp Index has a scale of 1 to 9; the higher the number, the farther south the aurora can be seen.

According to NOAA, 5.67 means “the aurora will move even further from the poles and will become quite bright and active. At this geomagnetic activity level, it might be possible to see the aurora from the northern edge of the United States.”

Northern Lights Alert: Latest Updates

Space weather is unpredictable, and the forecast can change quickly. Skywatchers are advised to check NOAA’s aurora view line, which is available for tonight and tomorrow night, and its 30-minute forecast, where the latest forecasts are posted.

The latter is critical since NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center knows the characteristics of a CME only when its particles strike the sensors of the DSCOVR and ACE satellites, which orbit Earth about a million miles out. They measure a CME's speed and magnetic intensity, which is critical in calculating how the solar wind is about to change. Depending on the speed of the CME, the satellites give about 15-30 minutes warning of a significant space weather event — and the resulting displays of aurora.

Northern Lights: Solar Activity

Solar activity is currently at a 23-year high. In October, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel announced that the sun had reached its “solar maximum” phase, the peak of its 11-year solar cycle. It’s thought that the Northern Lights will be seen from more southerly latitudes than is typical for at least the next year.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.