Can Direct Air Capture Decarbonize Aviation?

Can Direct Air Capture Decarbonize Aviation?

With destructive climate change impacts like the recent Los Angeles wildfires becoming more frequent, hard-to-abate industries like aviation are facing more pressure to reduce emissions. Airline leaders are now faced with a daunting challenge: how to keep up with surging air travel demand while minimizing their environmental impact. Traditional efficiency gains are nearing their limits, biofuel supply isn’t scaling fast enough, and availability of feedstocks are constrained. The aviation industry is frantically searching for scalable solutions. Enter Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, offering the potential to transform aviation by enabling both carbon-neutral operations and synthetic fuel production.

The Case for Direct Air Capture in Aviation

Aviation contributes approximately 4% of global anthropogenic climate warming, with two-thirds of its impact stemming from non-CO2 effects such as contrails. These condensation trails form when planes fly through cold air, creating a cloud-like blanket that traps heat in the atmosphere.

With sector growth projected at 2% annually, reliance on conventional methods for decarbonization is not enough. New technologies like hydrogen-powered planes and all-electric aircraft may one day eliminate direct emissions, but remain decades away from commercial viability for long-haul flights. Because of this, DAC has emerged as a front-runner in the race to decarbonize aviation.

DAC works by capturing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be stored permanently underground to offset emissions (carbon removal) or used to create synthetic fuels (carbon utilization) when combined with green hydrogen. Unlike biofuels, DAC doesn’t rely on large tracts of land or water, nor is it constrained by feedstock supply, making it a more sustainable solution in the long run.

Two Pathways, One Goal: Climate Neutrality

There are two primary pathways for achieving climate-neutral aviation using DAC by 2050:

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1. Carbon Removal: Under this model, airlines continue to use fossil jet fuels, but offset their carbon emissions by investing in carbon removal projects or purchasing carbon removal credits. This approach leverages DAC technology to capture CO2 emissions after they’ve entered the atmosphere.
2. Carbon Utilization: This approach involves gradually replacing fossil jet fuels with synthetic fuels produced using captured CO2 from the atmosphere and green hydrogen. By burning cleaner, these fuels also reduce non-CO2 impacts like contrail formation, significantly reducing aviation’s climate footprint.

Both pathways are gaining traction. On the carbon removal front, Airbus has pre-purchased 400,000 carbon credits from 1PointFive’s DAC project in Texas, slated to go online later this year. Likewise, DAC competitor Climeworks, recently secured carbon credit deals with SWISS and Lufthansa Group. In terms of carbon utilization, Alaska Airlines joined startup Twelve’s recent $645 million funding round aimed at scaling its CO2-to-jet-fuel technology as an investor and customer.

Each approach offers distinct benefits, and both will be crucial in decarbonizing aviation. While carbon removal is currently cheaper, synthetic fuels provide an edge by burning cleaner and reducing contrail formation—an often-overlooked contributor to global warming. A recent study published in Nature Communications highlighted that the future cost-effectiveness of carbon removals versus carbon utilization depends heavily on renewable energy prices and fossil fuel market dynamics. If renewable electricity drops to €0.02 per kilowatt-hour (a very optimistic scenario) or fossil kerosene prices rise to €0.9 per liter, synthetic fuels could become economically competitive.

Ultimately, a dual approach—carbon removals to offset historical emissions and carbon utilization to cut future emissions—is essential for achieving true climate neutrality in aviation.

The Consumer Impact: Will Flyers Pay More?

One burning question for industry leaders is whether DAC-based solutions will drive up ticket prices—and if so, by how much. The Nature Communications study estimates that achieving CO2 neutrality via carbon removal would increase ticket prices by 30% to 40%, while achieving full climate neutrality via carbon utilization could push prices up by 40% to 60%. Despite these increases, the projected price hikes remain within the range of typical seasonal price fluctuations seen in today’s airline industry.

Interestingly, the increase per passenger for long-haul flights could range from €30 to €90, a manageable premium for many business travelers. On short-haul routes, the cost increase is even lower, around €10 per passenger. With growing consumer awareness of climate issues, many customers may be willing to pay this premium, especially if airlines clearly communicate the environmental benefits.

Many airlines offer the option to offset emissions at checkout, but these offsets are typically cheaper nature-based offsets like planting more trees. Soon, airlines could start offering technology-based carbon offsets instead.

Is Direct Air Capture Ready for Takeoff?

For much of the aviation industry, DAC is not just a technology trend—it’s the potential solution they have been searching for to unlock sustainable aviation. Investing in direct air capture now means staking their claim as a trailblazer in a rapidly shifting landscape. The payoff is more than just ticking regulatory boxes—it’s also locking in a growing wave of eco-conscious travellers who are actively seeking greener options.

Here’s the kicker: early adopters get a double win. First, they shape the future of the industry. Second, they ride the cost-cutting wave as production scales and DAC technology gets cheaper. As the technology matures, carbon removals and synthetic fuels could become as mainstream as kerosene—without the environmental baggage.

Sure, there are challenges—costs, scaling, and getting past technology hurdles aren’t a given. But the upside is massive. With a smart mix of innovation, policy support, and bold investments, DAC could rewrite the rules of aviation. It’s a chance to tackle one of the toughest climate challenges while turning it into a booming business opportunity. Will the aviation sector be ready to lead the takeoff?