Delhi Summit to see a new strategic reset in India-Russia partnership

Oil is no longer a sticking point in trilateral cooperation Calculus

By K Raveendran

An evolving convergence of political intent and economic pragmatism is giving fresh momentum to the India–Russia relationship, placing the forthcoming summit in New Delhi as a significant moment in a partnership that has already weathered decades of geopolitical shifts. The visit of President Vladimir Putin, framed within the terminology of a ‘Special and Privileged Partnership’, signals the desire on both sides to advance an agenda no longer restricted by earlier bottlenecks and no longer shaped solely by legacy compulsions. While oil had dominated negotiations for much of the past year, developments in global energy markets and ongoing conversations in Washington have eased the pressure around hydrocarbons, allowing New Delhi and Moscow to focus their attention on defence cooperation and broader strategic alignment.

A key change enabling this shift is the recalibration of expectations around crude supplies. The fluctuations in global oil prices and the changing composition of India’s energy basket have created an environment where the friction over Russian heavy crude versus American light crude has begun to lose relevance. India’s ability to balance imports from multiple suppliers, coupled with the absence of direct competition between grades of oil it purchases, has reduced the scope for conflict between its partnerships with Washington and Moscow. This has, in turn, lifted a major burden from India’s diplomatic bandwidth, enabling policy planners to revisit older templates of cooperation with Russia and explore new ones without the anxiety of antagonising another partner.

The widening space created by this shift is particularly evident in defence cooperation, which has long been the most visible pillar of the India–Russia equation. Both governments have acknowledged that the deepening of the defence relationship will be central to the Delhi summit. The discussions are expected to extend beyond the traditional buyer-seller dynamic that has shaped military ties since the Cold War. India, now more assertive in its push for indigenisation and self-reliance in defence production, is exploring models that combine technology transfers, joint manufacturing and longer-term collaboration in emerging domains such as cyber capabilities, space-based assets and advanced propulsion systems.

Moscow, for its part, sees value in retaining India as a trusted partner at a time when its own strategic landscape has undergone considerable strain. Western sanctions and shifting regional alliances have pushed Russia to diversify its economic and political engagements. India’s large market, its expanding defence industrial base and its geopolitical weight offer Russia both stability and opportunity. The upcoming summit provides an avenue to reinforce these convergences, building on existing projects while outlining future pathways that reflect shared strategic calculations.

These dynamics also carry broader implications for New Delhi’s foreign policy posture. India’s long-standing emphasis on strategic autonomy continues to be tested by evolving global power structures. The shifting contours of US–China tensions, Russia’s changing position in the international system and the uncertainties shaping West Asia have all placed new demands on India’s diplomatic agility. In this environment, maintaining a robust partnership with Russia serves multiple objectives: it helps preserve India’s freedom of manoeuvre, ensures diversity in its defence acquisitions and offers leverage in negotiations with other major powers.

Energy security remains intertwined with many of these calculations. India’s diversification strategy has meant that no single country dominates its supply sources, but Russia continues to play a meaningful role. Its heavy crude fits into India’s refining ecosystem, while American light crude provides flexibility and volume. As global markets adjust to changes in OPEC behaviour, the expansion of non-OPEC supplies and the broader volatility affecting commodity flows, the absence of conflict between Russian and American crude in India’s import profile offers room for parallel engagements with both partners. This compatibility has not only lowered geopolitical risk but has also deepened India’s capacity to pursue energy diplomacy that is both pragmatic and resilient.

The summit discussions are likely to touch upon broader economic possibilities as well, even if defence and energy dominate the headlines. Trade figures between the two countries have shown spurts of growth followed by periods of stagnation, indicating the need for structural interventions to unlock sustained expansion. Connectivity constraints, limited diversification of export baskets and regulatory hurdles have traditionally impeded progress. In the current environment, where de-risking supply chains has become a global priority, India and Russia may explore ways to stabilise bilateral commerce. This could involve enhancing cooperation in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, mineral resources and nuclear technology, areas where complementarities already exist.

Moreover, the geopolitical backdrop in which the summit is taking place is shaping the nature of conversations between the two countries. India’s continued balancing between Western partnerships and its traditional friendship with Russia remains an exercise in nuance. New Delhi has avoided being drawn into great-power polarisation, instead leveraging its relationships with multiple actors to advance its own strategic interests. The reduction of oil-related tensions in Washington has eased one layer of complexity in this balancing act. It allows India to approach the summit with Moscow with greater confidence, knowing that it can defend its engagements without straining ties with other partners.

Russia, too, recognises the value of India’s growing profile. Its role in multilateral forums, its expanding economy and its evolving defence capabilities all contribute to Moscow’s strategic calculations. The summit offers the Kremlin an opportunity to reinforce long-standing goodwill while signalling to other global actors that Russia continues to command partnerships beyond its immediate neighbourhood. For Moscow, maintaining a robust relationship with India is also a way of offsetting the risks associated with overdependence on any single partner.

The intangible dimension of the relationship—trust, reliability and political comfort—remains a strong factor underpinning the momentum around the summit. Despite shifts in the global order and India’s closer engagement with the United States and Europe, the historical sense of partnership between New Delhi and Moscow has not dissipated. The terminology adopted for the summit, emphasising ‘Special and Privileged Partnership’, is not merely ceremonial. It reflects a relationship shaped by decades of cooperation, a relationship that both countries continue to value for reasons that blend legacy with strategic logic. (IPA Service)