THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU Is Tracking for a Bigger Opening Than PROJECT HAIL MARY and That’s a Huge Win for STAR WARS

Lucasfilm might actually have a major theatrical hit on its hands withThe Mandalorian and Grogu. Even with reviews being mixed, the movie is shaping up to deliver a pretty massive opening weekend at the box office.

According to Deadline, the long-awaited Star Wars movie is currently projected to hit or even pass an $80 million domestic debut over its four-day opening weekend.

That’s a strong return for the franchise’s first theatrical release in seven years, especially after the uneven response to some of Lucasfilm’s recent projects.

Worldwide, the movie is reportedly aiming for around $160 million globally. If those numbers hold, The Mandalorian and Grogu would leap past Project Hail Mary and its $141 million opening to claim the third biggest debut of the year. It would tie with China’s Pegasus 3, which also opened to $160 million.

Right now, the year’s biggest opening belongs to The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with a huge $372.6 million launch, while Michael sits in second place with $217 million.

That’s not bad company for Din Djarin and Grogu to keep. The movie reportedly carries a production budget of around $165 million, meaning it could nearly recover that entire cost during opening weekend alone.

Of course, that doesn’t factor in the marketing campaign, which is likely enormous considering Disney has been pushing this movie hard.

One especially encouraging sign is the North American presale tracking. The report says The Mandalorian and Grogu has already reached $25 million in presales, putting it ahead of Project Hail Mary and lining it up alongside Avatar: Fire and Ash.

That comparison could end up meaning a lot. Project Hail Mary eventually pulled in $668.5 million globally, while Avatar: Fire and Ash crossed the billion-dollar mark. Whether The Mandalorian and Grogu can reach those kinds of numbers will depend entirely on audience reactions and how well the movie holds over the following weeks.

There’s also an interesting comparison to Solo: A Star Wars Story. That film opened to $148 million worldwide with a 69% Rotten Tomatoes score before finishing its run at $392.9 million.

The Mandalorian and Grogu currently sits at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’ll be interesting to see whether audience enthusiasm for Grogu and the Disney+ series can give this movie stronger staying power.

I thought the film was great, and I had a lot of fun with it! But, even with the mixed critical response, it feels like fans are ready to see Star Wars back on the big screen again. The combination of Grogu’s massive popularity, familiar characters, and the cinematic jump from Disney+ to theaters could end up being exactly what the franchise needed.

We’ll find out how strong the Force really is when The Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters on May 22.