THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU Box-Office Projections Are Low, but Disney Could Still Win

It’s been a long stretch since Star Wars ruled the big screen, and now the franchise is finally gearing up for its theatrical return with The Mandalorian and Grogu. But, if early projections are any indication, this comeback might not hit hyperspeed quite as fast as fans were hoping.

According to industry tracking from Box Office Theory, The Mandalorian and Grogu is currently projected to pull in around $71 million during its opening weekend.

That’s… not exactly the kind of number you’d expect from a Star Wars movie. In fact, if that estimate holds, it would land below Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4 million and went on to become the franchise’s first real box office misfire in the Disney era.

That doesn’t tell the full story, though. Sure, both films share some awkward marketing beats. The first trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu didn’t connect the way fans hoped, and even a Super Bowl spot didn’t generate much momentum. The more recent trailer did a much better job getting fans on board, but the early perception may have already shaped expectations.

Still, putting this film in the same category as Solo isn’t entirely fair. The biggest difference comes down to cost. While Solo carried a massive price tag, The Mandalorian and Grogu is working with a reported $166 million budget, according to the California Film Commission.

The final number will climb higher once global post-production is factored in, but even then, it’s shaping up to be the most affordable Star Wars movie in years.

That lower budget changes the outlook. Instead of needing to dominate the box office, the film just needs to perform well enough to turn a profit and with Pedro Pascal returning alongside Grogu, plus a heavy emphasis on practical effects, there’s still plenty of draw for fans who’ve been missing Star Wars on the big screen.

There’s also a bigger strategy at play here. This project started life as what would’ve been The Mandalorian Season 4, and it still kind of feels like that. It’s essentially a streaming-style story given a theatrical release, which makes it a safer play for Disney.

Even if it doesn’t explode at the box office, it’s almost guaranteed to find a massive audience once it lands on Disney+. From that perspective, the film doesn’t need to be the biggest hit of the year. It just needs to work, and it probably will.

That said, fans looking for a full-blown Star Wars resurgence might need to be a little more patient. The Mandalorian and Grogu doesn’t seem positioned to redefine the franchise’s theatrical future.

That spotlight will likely fall on Star Wars: Starfighter, which is lined up to coincide with the franchise’s 50th anniversary celebration. That release will also be paired with a theatrical return of the original Star Wars film, taking things back to where it all began.

So while The Mandalorian and Grogu might not be the galaxy-shaking event some were hoping for, it doesn’t need to be. If it turns a profit and keeps audiences engaged, that’s a win for Disney and Lucasfilm.