Global temperatures on track to break 1.5°C but it's not too late to bring them back down, UN says

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE on course to rise above 1.5°C within the next few years, but it’s not too late to bring them down and meet the goals set in the Paris climate change agreement, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.

The most optimistic scenario, the report said, will see temperature rise peak at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, but most other scenarios predict higher peaks.

The world has already warmed roughly 1.4°C since 1850-1900, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels and the last three years have been the hottest on record.

An overshoot is inevitable, according to the report. However, an “overshoot, peak, and decline” pathway is “the best remaining option” to minimise the magnitude and duration of this overshoot. 

“This summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition.” 

Cuts to greenhouse gases, including methane, and the planting of more forests would be key elements of such an approach. 

Following the pathway would involve adaptations that reduce the vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change, the report said, although “there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimised”.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said there are “no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C”.

“Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can – and must – get on the right path.”

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Andersen said there “are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C”.

The report said the impacts of temperatures rising above 1.5°C include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss and the submersion of small island states as well as low-lying coastal cities.

“Severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure and economies is expected,” it said. 

“Years of inaction mean that even if a return to below 1.5°C is secured, irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are certain.”

Responding to the UN report, David Waskow, director of World Resources Institute’s (WRI) International Climate Initiative, said that crossing the threshold set in the Paris Agreement “is no longer a distant possibility”.

“With a developing Super El Niño, the worst may still be ahead. Every fraction of a degree raises the toll.”

Jasper Inventor of Greenpeace International said: “This is a heartbreaking moment, but overshoot is not the reason to give up and surrender 1.5°C.”

With reporting from AFP

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