The fuel crisis changed something. The question now is whether it sticks

THE QUEUES AT petrol stations and the protests around the record fuel prices during the spring did something that years of government advertising and carbon taxes never quite managed. They made the argument for electric cars personal.

We had been told in a hundred different ways that going electric is better for the environment and cheaper to run over time. We nodded, and kept filling the diesel tank.

Then the fuel protests arrived, prices jumped, some people queued to get petrol and in some rural areas stations ran out, and a certain number of us started doing the mental arithmetic differently.

At DoneDeal Cars, we wanted to understand whether that shift was real and how deep it ran. So we surveyed Irish drivers this month on their cars, their spending, their concerns, and their plans.

Before the fuel crisis, 38% of respondents described themselves as interested or very interested in switching to electric. Afterwards, that had risen to 57%. A 19-point swing. The proportion with no interest at all fell from 34% to 23%.

Now, interest is not the same as action. But here is where the numbers tell another story.

Right now, just 9.5% of respondents drive a full electric car. When asked what type of car they plan to buy next, 26% said fully electric. That is almost three times current EV ownership. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids account for a further 40% of stated next-car intentions. Just 10% say their next car will be diesel, and 7% petrol.

Half of all respondents plan to change their car within the next two years. That is a window that is open right now. The question is whether the conditions are right to walk through it.

Barriers to switching 

Price and public charging are the twin barriers that come up most often. Lower purchase prices and higher government grants were each cited by 33% as the things most likely to move them towards an EV. Better public charging near home or work was named by 23%. These are not unreasonable things to want, but they are also not entirely within the industry’s gift to deliver.

Speaking on the Driver’s Republic Podcast, Transport Minister Darragh O’Brien said that he recognises that we are behind some of our European counterparts when it comes to our charging infrastructure, and also addressed the issue that exists for those who want to charge, but only have on-street parking. He promised a solution to this by 2026.

What the industry can do something about is the third barrier, which I suspect might turn out to be the most significant of all: battery anxiety.

Among people considering a used EV, 83% named battery health and remaining capacity as their top concern. Not the price. Not the range. The battery. The importance of getting a battery state of health report scored 91.7 out of 100 in the survey. The median score was 100.

People want this information and they want it before they sign anything. A battery health report and a solid dealer warranty are the price of admission, and the survey says most buyers expect a minimum of one year on that warranty, with more than a quarter wanting two.

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That matters because the used EV market is genuinely accessible right now. There are over 6,400 used electric cars listed on DoneDeal Cars, and half of prospective EV buyers say they are open to buying used. That potential will only be realised if buyers can trust what they are purchasing.

Sustainable solutions

For me there remains a potential issue for buyers of higher-mileage electric vehicles.

While most EV batteries have long warranties on paper, often 8 years or 160,000km, it’s the latter that often comes first and if you have a major technical mishap in an EV out of warranty then this can be an expensive fix. There certainly needs to be more offered in the future to fix this potential issue if electric vehicles are to become a truly sustainable solution.

One finding surprised me in the survey, and it concerns PCP finance. PCP is the product that, among other things, locks in a guaranteed future value for your car at the start of the agreement. That is actually a useful feature for anyone worried about EV depreciation. You know what the car will be worth at the end of the term before you even sign. 68% of respondents said they were somewhat or very concerned about EV resale values. PCP is, in a sense, a ready-made answer to that specific concern.

And yet 75% of Irish drivers surveyed did not know that PCP guarantees the future residual value. Three in four. It is a significant consumer education gap, and it represents an opportunity for buyers who are prepared to do a bit of homework before they commit. PCP is by no means perfect, but it at least puts the bulk of the stress of any potential residual value fluctuations on the lender, not the buyer.

One more number worth mentioning. Among those actively considering an EV, BYD is now the most considered brand in Ireland, cited by 46% of respondents.

Volkswagen is second at 44%, with Kia, Toyota, Hyundai and Skoda behind them. The Chinese newcomer has moved quickly into Irish consciousness, and the data suggests it is not a flash in the pan.

The mood among Irish drivers right now is one of genuine movement. The barriers are real but they are specific, and most of them are addressable. If you are in that half of the country planning to change their car in the next two years and haven’t started looking yet, it is understandable that you will have concerns and questions.

From sitting down with the current transport minister this week for our podcast, I certainly got a sense of him not being an anti-car minister, something that wasn’t always true of his predecessors.

The upcoming ICE2EV scheme, we know, is going to be vastly over-subscribed and has the potential to disappoint a significant number of buyers, but we will almost certainly see a repeat in 2027, because as much as there is pressure to increase the EV numbers, there is more to reduce the national fleet’s CO2 and this is a pretty easy way to do it.

What do you plan to do?

Stick with your own car, move to a hybrid or EV or something else?

Let us know in the comments.

Paddy Comyn is the head of automotive content and communications with DoneDeal Cars. He has been involved in the Irish motor industry for more than 25 years.

Journal Media Ltd has shareholders in common with DoneDeal Ltd.

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