Manchester United have a big £15m problem complicating Erik ten Hag sack decision

It was 100 days on Friday since Erik ten Hag had his Manchester United contract extended, and the century has produced more rockier moments than the Labour government, which brings up the same milestone today. While there's no chance of Keir Starmer being voted out of office just yet, the same can't be said for Ten Hag.

He looks to have survived a summit of United's decision-makers in London on Tuesday, but once again, it was a flirtation with the sack for a manager who is running out of lives. His team is 14th in the Premier League and 19th for goals, and an immediate upturn in form is required.

On the evidence of this season, it's a surprise Ten Hag continues to cling on, but there are several factors going into this decision. At Sir Jim Ratcliffe's Knightsbridge offices, United's part-owner sat with Joel Glazer and listened to arguments for and against sticking with the under-pressure Dutchman.

ALSO READ: Erik ten Hag expecting to take charge of Manchester United next week

ALSO READ: United's best player is struggling after receiving a pay rise from Ratcliffe

The football leadership team of chief executive Omar Berrada, sporting director Dan Ashworth and technical director Jason Wilcox should have seen enough to make firmer judgements now. Board members Sir Dave Brailsford and Jean-Claude Blanc might also have offered their views.

But it isn't as simple as casting an underperforming manager adrift. The candidates to replace Ten Hag aren't entirely convincing, and the merits of most of them were discussed in the summer. Then there are the finances.

That one-year extension to his contract activated in July has increased the payout Ten Hag is likely to receive if he is dismissed to around £14m to £15m. That is a substantial sum to a loss-making football club that continues to skate close to the edge of financial rules imposed by UEFA and the Premier League.

United said in their end-of-year accounts that they remain "committed to, and in compliance with, both the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules and UEFA’s Financial Fair Play Regulations."

They passed the three-year PSR monitoring period, allowing losses of £105m from 2021 to 2023, but that required some creative accounting when it came to the allowable deductions. This is a club that has made a loss for five years in a row - most recently £113.2m.

Those five years have seen cumulative losses of more than £370m, and the last three years have seen the club lose £257m. Ratcliffe is confident of turning a club with significant commercial clout into a profit-making enterprise but that doesn't look like happening just yet. Spending £15m on getting rid of a manager you weren't convinced by in the summer would be problematic, especially on the back of another £200m transfer window.

It might also force United to focus their search for a replacement on those managers who are out of work and available rather than paying compensation for anyone currently employed. It narrows the field of available candidates, which would be headed by Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter.

The £15m decision will not be taken lightly at Old Trafford but as results flatline it could become a lose-lose scenario. United need the revenue from the Champions League to start turning significant losses into more manageable figures and easing concerns about PSR.

When United last reached the Champions League quarter-finals in 2018/19, they took home £93.1m. When they reached the Europa League quarter-finals in 2022/23, it was just £37.5m. That shows the financial gap between the two competitions and it is only growing.

Right now, next season looks like another without a seat at Europe's top table. United could yet win the Europa League, and there is plenty of time to make up ground in the race for fourth, but under Ten Hag, neither looks likely. Ratcliffe might have to pay £15m to spin the roulette well and hope it brings a change of fortunes.