Putin looking to North Korea to boost troops in Ukraine is deeply concerning

Russia has lost more than 600,000 troops in the war in Ukraine and now Putin is turning to Kim Jong Un for help

News of North Korean soldiers heading for training in Russia before deployment to Ukraine to help Putin’s war is deeply concerning. The more entrenched the axis between Moscow and Pyongyang becomes the greater the threat to the so-called world order and the possibility of escalation.

Of course the immediate threat is to Ukraine which is desperately trying to defend in the east and south against Russia ’s brutal invasion. So far Russia is said by Kyiv to have lost more than 600,000 troops in the war in Ukraine, 369 aircraft, 328 helicopters and a staggering 8860 tanks.

With that level of losses Putin’s turning to Kim Jong Un for help was inevitable but mission creep will almost certainly lead to an increase in North Korea’s involvement.

Not only does Putin want to boost numbers of troops in Ukraine but he will also want to expand support from his rogue state partner. Initially it is believed as many as 3,000 North Korean troops are going to Russia, at least half of them already at camps throughout the country.

This will likely increase by another 10,000 by the end of the year. And now South Korea is believed to be considering sending “military advisers” to Ukraine in reaction to the North’s escalation.

This will be a good opportunity for western intelligence agencies to assess the capability of North Korea’s military in all-out conflict. The US-based Soufan Centre, run by leading former FBI terrorism expert Ali Soufan says in their latest assessment:

“Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war marks a new and dangerous escalation in its growing alliance with Moscow, a relationship rooted in the Soviet Union's role in establishing the Kim family regime.

While their ties have fluctuated over the years, the two countries have drawn closer since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “In exchange for providing war resources and helping expand Russia’s influence in East Asia, North Korea has gained economic aid, diplomatic support, and important military technology.”

They reveal that the alliance deepened when Putin visited North Korea to sign a partnership treaty earlier this year, in a similar deal to that between NATO countries.

Article 4 of their agreement says that North Korea and Russia “shall immediately provide military and other assistance” to the other country if it “falls into a state of war due to armed invasion from an individual or multiple states.”

This troop movement is clearly the first indication of North Korea coming directly to Russia’s aid and probably follows a partial incursion by Ukrainian troops earlier this year.

Soufan adds: “This growing relationship has raised significant concerns among experts regarding nuclear proliferation and regional stability. “Moscow’s backing of Pyongyang in the UN Security Council has allowed North Korea to advance its nuclear and missile development programs with limited international repercussions. “This diplomatic shield, combined with the possibility that Russia is supplying critical military technology in exchange for North Korean troops, has heightened security fears in the region.

“The situation is especially troubling given the recent escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's aggressive steps to permanently sever ties with South Korea — such as the destruction of part of a key road linking the two countries — and his alarming threats of preemptive nuclear strikes.”

Crucially China, an ally to both, is watching in the sidelines to see just how far North Korea will go in its involvement with Russia. And Iran too has grown close to Moscow since their militaries worked together to help Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in his war against al-Qaeda affiliates and Islamic State in 2015.

The connection between Russia, Iran and North Korea is in intelligence circles talked of as the “Iron Triangle.” It is deeply concerning but given the instability of all three there are weak spots in their relationships that will likely emerge.

Russia is extremely unlikely, for instance, to step in and overtly help Iran in its escalating tension with Israel. And it is also extremely unlikely to back North Korea directly in its tension with the US, other than supplying nuclear technology.

Iranian advisers are said to have appeared helping Moscow in Ukraine and Tehran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones, which have cost Kyiv dear in terms of having to shoot them down.

This is an increasingly complex mess of shifting loyalties and commitments whilst the west, though often dithering in its supply of weapons, has supported Ukraine steadfastly.