Why the US-Iran war is not about nuclear weapons but oil? Explained

At a glance, the latest ceasefire between the US and Iran appears to be a familiar story of military hostilities followed by diplomatic talks and finally restraint. However, in recent weeks, tensions escalated sharply as Iran flexed its ability to disrupt shipping traffic through the Strait. It seemed to be a calculated move aimed at leveraging economic pressure. 

US-Iran ceasefire: US President Donald Trump has suspended the "bombing and attack" campaign on Iran, announcing a two-week double-sided ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme National Security Council said that the ceasefire does not signal an end to the war, pending negotiations over the details of its 10-point plan.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that the ten-point proposal will serve as the basis for negotiating a permanent deal, while reiterating that the US has achieved most of its military objectives.

Meanwhile, IANS reported that, according to Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency, the 10 points are- US commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression; continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz; acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights; lifting of all primary sanctions; lifting of all secondary sanctions; termination of all United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions against Iran; termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Tehran. 

Additionally, the demands also include payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war; withdrawal of US combat forces from the region; cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, reports Xinhua, quoting Mehr News Agency.

According to Iran, the United States has accepted Iran's 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations.

Strait of Hormuz tensions

At a glance, the latest ceasefire between the US and Iran appears to be a familiar story of military hostilities followed by diplomatic talks and finally restraint. 

But beneath the surface of this pattern lies a deeper reality: this conflict may have started as the US and Israel's target set on stopping Iran from becoming a nuclear power; however, right now, the war seems to have evolved into control over one of the world’s most critical energy lifelines.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor, has emerged as the central axis. Notably, roughly a fifth of global oil flows through this route. It is one of the most strategically sensitive chokepoints in the world. The disruptions here immediately transformed into a global economic concern.

In recent weeks, tensions escalated sharply as Iran flexed its ability to disrupt shipping traffic through the Strait. It seemed to be a calculated move aimed at leveraging economic pressure. 

By restricting the use of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran effectively reminded the world that its geographic position gives it an edge over global energy flows.

The ceasefire, therefore, cannot be understood purely as a pause in hostilities. It is also an attempt to stabilise energy markets.  

Are energy markets affected by war? 

Oil prices, which tend to spike even with minor geopolitical instability, proved highly sensitive to developments in the Strait and the Middle East. 

Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted.

US oil export

Earlier, US President Trump said countries dependent on Middle East oil should take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz. 

Trump had also said that the US would not bear the burden of securing maritime routes alone. Referring to countries reliant on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, he said, “they must take care of that passage… they must grab it and cherish it.”

He said several countries dependent on the route had stayed out of the conflict and should now act. “To those countries that can't get fuel… many of which refuse to get involved… we had to do it ourselves,” he said.

Trump offered a blunt prescription. “Number one, buy oil from the United States of America… and number two, build up some delayed courage… go to the Strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.”

India's energy import 

In a statement, dated March 26, 2026, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas ensured that India's petroleum and LPG supply situation is fully secure and under control. 

Further ensuring that there is no LPG shortage, the statement said, "Following the LPG Control Order issued by this Ministry, domestic refinery production has been ramped up by 40%, bringing daily LPG output to 50 TMT (more than 60% of our requirement) against a total daily requirement of around 80 TMT. The net daily import requirement has consequently come down to only 30 TMT — meaning India is now producing much more than it needs to import."

"Over and above domestic production, 800 TMT of assured inbound LPG cargoes are already secured and en route from the United States, Russia, Australia, and other countries, arriving across India's 22 LPG import terminals — double the 11 terminals that existed in 2014. Approximately one full month of supply is firmly arranged, with additional procurement being finalised continuously. Oil companies are successfully delivering over 50 lakh cylinders every day. Cylinder demand had gone up to 89 lakh cylinders due to panic ordering by consumers and has now come down to 50 lakh cylinders again. Commercial cylinder allocations have been raised to 50% in consultation with state governments to avoid hoarding or black marketing," it added.

Strait of Hormuz: A strategic route that played in favour of Iran? 

If the conflict proved one thing, it was that Iran does not need to dominate the seas outright; it only needs to create enough uncertainty to influence global markets. This created a constant tension where neither side sought a full-scale conflict, yet both were willing to escalate just enough to reinforce their positions.

In this framework, the real leverage lay in the ability to affect oil flows and, by extension, global economic stability. When tensions begin to threaten shipping routes, external actors, including global stakeholders, often step in at this stage, pushing both sides toward temporary agreements.

However, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged, as do the competing interests of the US and Iran. For countries dependent on energy imports, this pattern carries significant implications. Even short disruptions can have serious effects on fuel prices, inflation, and economic planning. 

Ultimately, the current ceasefire is less about ending a conflict and more about managing it. 

Thus, the war behind the war is fought not just with weapons, but with geography, economics, and the strategic manipulation of both.

Also read- 'Leave Iran': India issues fresh advisory for nationals after ceasefire announcement