REPRESENTATIVE PICTURE

Kerala 2026 pre-poll survey: UDF gains edge as LDF faces strong anti-incumbency

Is the LDF losing its grip on Kerala? A new 2026 pre-poll survey of 26,000 voters shows the UDF leading with 38.2% vote share. See the top CM picks and anti-incumbency data.

by · Zee News

A pre-poll survey ahead of the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections shows a notable change in the political scene. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is currently in the lead, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is struggling with growing anti-incumbency feelings.

The numbers: Vote share projections

The survey, conducted with a diverse group of 26,000 respondents, reveals a clear lead for the opposition:

  • UDF: 38.2% projected vote share.
  • LDF: 33.7% projected vote share.
  • NDA (BJP-led): 20.4% projected vote share.
  • Undecided: Around 8% of voters are still uncertain.

The CM face: Internal battles and favourites

The survey highlighted interesting dynamics regarding preferred chief minister candidates in each coalition:

Within the UDF:  

  • V.D. Satheesan: 29.5% support.
  • K.C. Venugopal: 28.2% support.
  • Shashi Tharoor: 23.4% support.

Within the LDF:

  • Pinarayi Vijayan: Leading with 38.2% support.
  • K.K. Shailaja: Following with 32.5% support.

When asked about potential political impact, K.C. Venugopal stands out as a strong favourite across communities, gaining 46.8% support as a potential CM compared to Pinarayi Vijayan’s 27.9%. Venugopal shows significant appeal among Christians (33.2%), Muslims (29.5%), and the youth (33.9%).

Public sentiment: Performance and development

Public dissatisfaction with the current LDF government seems high. Over 51% of respondents rated the government's performance as either "Poor" or "Very Poor." In contrast, only 34.5% rated it as "Good" or "Excellent."

Regarding development trust, the UDF leads with 38.9% confidence, followed by the LDF at 27.8% and the NDA at 23.1%.

The NDA factor and regional comparisons

In the NDA camp, Rajeev Chandrasekhar is the clear favourite for the CM position, holding 52.1% support, well ahead of K. Surendran at 22.4%.

The survey also looked at national leaders, showing high approval ratings for Himanta Biswa Sarma (61.5% in Assam), M.K. Stalin (62.4% in Tamil Nadu), and Mamata Banerjee (58.6% in West Bengal), providing a snapshot of regional leadership across India.

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