Rafale vs Su-57 battle: Is Vietnam about to ditch Russia; why India is in a bind?

The Su-57, Russia’s fifth-generation stealth fighter, has been under Vietnam’s radar since 2018.

New Delhi: A contest between two advanced fighter jets, France’s Rafale and Russia’s Su-57, is playing out in Vietnam, a country looking to modernise its ageing air force as pressure rises in the South China Sea. The decision is being tracked across the region, including in India, where a Rafale deal is still stuck over technical issues.

Hanoi has operated Russian-origin fighter jets for decades, including Su-22, Su-27 and Su-30MK2 aircraft. But now, the country is looking at expanding its options and reducing dependence on a single supplier.

The Su-57, Russia’s fifth-generation stealth fighter, has been under Vietnam’s radar since 2018. At the same time, talks with France over the Rafale have also moved forward over the past year. Reports in French media suggest that talks between Hanoi and Paris have reached a final stage.

According to French newspaper L’Express, Vietnam could be among the next customers for Rafale. The Vietnamese military, which presently operates Russian Sukhoi aircraft, is considering diversifying its suppliers. A Vietnamese pilot has had the opportunity to fly the Dassault fighter aircraft, although this was done in a very confidential manner.

In defence deals, allowing a foreign pilot to fly a fighter jet usually indicates that negotiations have moved beyond the early stage.

Indonesia’s 2022 deal for 42 Rafale jets, worth around $8.1 billion, is also being viewed as a reference point for similar negotiations in the region.

Open-source estimates suggest Vietnam may be considering two squadrons, roughly 24 to 40 aircraft. The cost could range between $4 billion and $8 billion. If talks conclude this year, a formal agreement could be signed next year, with deliveries starting around 2030.

India’s Rafale issue

While Vietnam evaluates its options, India is also in talks with France for 114 Rafale fighter jets in a deal estimated at $35-40 billion. However, negotiations have slowed due to differences over technology transfer and source code access.

France has refused to share the source code, while India is seeking the ability to integrate its own weapons systems into the aircraft. Without access, the country would need French approval for every software integration, which could also involve additional costs each time.

India is working on several indigenous missile systems that it wants to integrate into the Rafale platform. The present stand-off over source code has become a major issue in the negotiations.

Vietnam’s final choice between Rafale and Su-57 could influence its air defence strategy for decades. For India, the outcome of its own Rafale negotiations will decide how independently it can operate and upgrade the same aircraft in the future.

If both deals move forward in the coming years, the Rafale could become a central platform in multiple Asian air forces, while the competition with Russian stealth technology continues to define the region’s defence balance.