The Islamabad sandwich: Pakistan’s high-stakes struggle to break the US-Iran stalemate

Tehran and Washington appear to be at a crossroads over reopening the high-stakes peace negotiations. Meanwhile, questions are also being raised over whether Pakistan is acting as a genuine mediator or merely serving as a messenger.

It’s a peculiar situation - for Pakistan and also for Asim Munir. The Pakistani general’s last-ditch attempt to sit in America’s lap while pleasing Iran has landed flat on its face. The tensions between the United States and Iran have raised global concerns. The ripple effects of the conflict are already visible across regional security and the Strait of Hormuz. The key shipping route remains in special focus as disruption has been hurting the global energy supplies. Amid these concerns, Pakistan’s role as a mediator has come under scrutiny, with no progress emerging from talks and Iran clearly expressing distrust in Islamabad.

Tehran and Washington appear to be at a crossroads over reopening the high-stakes peace negotiations. Meanwhile, questions are also being raised over whether Pakistan is acting as a genuine mediator or merely serving as a messenger.

Also Read: Iran FM Abbas Araghchi lands in Pakistan for third visit in 48 hours: What’s behind the fast-paced diplomacy?

Pakistan’s role as mediator or messenger?

Retired Naval Captain and international affairs analyst Shyam Kumar argued that Pakistan’s role is largely limited. 

“Pakistan has taken over the role of a bridge between the US and Iran. Although it claims to represent Iranian interests, in reality, this is limited to the role of a messenger,” he said, adding that Islamabad is facing a “crisis of credibility” as Tehran questions its neutrality.

On Pakistan’s ties with both Iran and the US, Kumar pointed to Islamabad’s dual game. 

“Pakistan, while positioning itself as a neutral nation, has always been concerned about its own security and economic interests. It is concerned about maintaining stability at its border with Iran. However, it is also heavily dependent on foreign exchange earnings from the Gulf,” he said, adding that at the same time, Pakistan’s political and military leaders have been befriending the top leadership of America. 

Furthermore, he pointed out that a continued blockade at the Strait of Hormuz is going to cripple Pakistan's economy, and therefore it toes the USA line for negotiating with Iran.

Dr. Aparaajita Pandey, Assistant Professor, Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, however, framed it as an opportunistic balancing act. 

“The US has traditionally also had robust relations with Pakistan, often becoming their proxy for furthering Washington’s agenda in South Asia,” she said. According to her, Islamabad sees this as a chance to secure financial support from global institutions.

On the larger geopolitical alignment, Kumar suggested Pakistan is walking a tightrope between competing power blocs. While it seeks US support for financial assistance from global institutions like the IMF or World Bank, it continues to rely heavily on China for military hardware and infrastructure funding.

Pandey also expressed similar views and said, “Pakistan at this moment is not doing anyone’s bidding except their own. It is trying to balance the US, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia. US and Iran for obvious reasons, and Saudi Arabia and China for continued support.”

Could the mediator role backfire on Pakistan? 

Kumar explained that Pakistan's strategy has shifted to survival in the midst of conflicting demands. He highlighted the possibility of economic fallout for Islamabad if Gulf tensions escalate further. He added that Pakistan could face pressure from Washington to provide logistical support in the event of military action.

Pandey elaborated about the diplomatic risks, noting that any perception of bias or lack of transparency could lead to a swift breakdown of trust. 

“If any of the sides were to believe that Pakistan was being unethical or not completely truthful, the breach of trust would be instant among the parties in conflict and also with Islamabad, which would in turn have long-term ramifications,” she said.

Pakistan’s divided interests

On one hand, Pakistan shares a border with Iran, giving it a direct stake in regional stability. On the other hand, Islamabad remains keenly aligned with the United States for economic and strategic considerations.

As the US-Iran tensions continue with no clear end in sight, Pakistan’s attempt to play the role of a mediator appears overambitious. 

Pakistan’s balancing act between the two countries looks difficult to sustain. It seems unlikely that Islamabad can continue the charade of a balancing act for too long.

Also Read: Trump set to reject Iran's new peace proposal to end war: Report