Achieving ultra-low carbon intensity for second-generation sustainable aviation fuel

Paul Hubbard, CEO of Northpointe Energy, discusses how achieving ultra-low Carbon Intensity for second-generation Sustainable Aviation Fuel necessitates integration with regional Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage and clean energy facilities

An analysis of the UK and European markets shows that achieving ultra-low Carbon Intensity (CI) for second- generation Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) requires integration with regional Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) infrastructure and clean energy production facilities.

By replacing conventional fossil natural gas burners with blue hydrogen, developers can significantly reduce process emissions.

Furthermore, capturing biogenic process CO2 allows facilities to achieve highly negative CI scores. This deeply negative carbon profile provides a significant advantage: it reduces the volume of negative-CI SAF needed to blend with conventional fossil jet fuel to achieve a net-zero fuel blend.

Government policy is driving SAF market development; however, keeping policy initiatives aligned across government departments is vital to achieving the desired outcomes.

Strategic architecture for ultra-low CI waste-to-jet SAF in the UK and Europe: Executive summary

The UK and European aviation sectors are transitioning from voluntary adoption to strict statutory mandates. The EU ReFuelEU Aviation initiative mandates a 2% SAF blend in 2025, rising to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Concurrently, the UK SAF Mandate requires 2% SAF in 2025, scaling to 22% by 2040.

The primary economic and environmental goal for these projects is achieving a deeply negative CI score. By integrating industrial CCUS networks and replacing fossil natural gas with blue hydrogen for process heat, a 2G SAF plant can transform from a standard manufacturing asset into a net carbon sink.

This deep negative carbon profile simplifies downstream logistics. Because the fuel carries an ultra-low or negative CI score, a smaller volume of it is required in a blend to offset the emissions of conventional fossil kerosene, helping airlines meet net-zero targets with less physical SAF volume.

The linear mechanics of negative CI blending

In European and UK regulatory frameworks, the value of an advanced fuel depends on its total lifecycle carbon reduction. When a 2G SAF plant integrates carbon capture and clean process heat, its lifecycle CI gCO2e/MJ drops well below zero.

Achieving a deeply negative CI score requires an MSW-to-FT facility to connect directly with expanding regional utility and industrial networks.

Connecting to offshore sequestration networks

A SAF facility cannot achieve a negative carbon profile without access to permanent geological storage. In the UK and Europe, carbon sequestration relies on offshore networks.

If a project is unable to connect to the sequestration networks, it must transport its captured CO2 using specialised coastal vessels or rail cars. This adds transport emissions and capital costs for liquefaction facilities, making direct proximity to a shared carbon pipeline network a critical site selection factor.

Displacing fossil natural gas with blue hydrogen

Fischer-Tropsch processing requires significant thermal energy to maintain high operating temperatures in the synthesis reactors and to drive distillation columns during product upgrading. Traditionally, these plants generate process heat using conventional natural gas burners.

Using fossil natural gas releases carbon dioxide during combustion, which increases the facility’s processing emissions. To lower the carbon footprint, developers can replace fossil natural gas with blue hydrogen.

Because hydrogen combustion produces only water vapour, this substitution eliminates combustion emissions from the plant’s heating systems.

The viability of this substitution depends on proximity to planned hydrogen production facilities.

Low-carbon grid connection and interconnection queues

The carbon footprint of using grid power depends on the local generation mix. In Europe and the UK, grid CI varies by region:

To minimise processing emissions, developers must secure connections to high-voltage transmission networks that offer access to clean energy sources. However, grid operators across the UK and Europe face significant backlogs in processing interconnection requests for new industrial loads.

SAF developers can face waiting periods of three to five years to secure grid connection agreements. These delays present a key risk to project timelines, requiring developers to evaluate existing electrical capacity early in the site selection process.

Project development lifecycle risks

Developing a commercial-scale SAF facility is a complex, long-term undertaking. Because these projects feature highly integrated, capital- intensive chemical processes, the timeline from initial site selection to commercial operation typically spans five to six years.

Phase breakdown

1. Year 1: Site selection and feasibility: Securing long-term waste supply frameworks, assessing local grid capacity, and completing initial lifecycle carbon modelling.
2. Year 2: Front-End Engineering Design (FEED)/permitting: Completing detailed engineering designs for the gasification and FT synthesis blocks, and initiating environmental baseline studies.
3. Years 3–5: EPC Construction: Managing the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) phase, which involves heavy equipment installation and facility construction.
4. Year 6: Commissioning and startup: Scaling up operations, calibrating catalysts, and securing formal CI certifications.

The policy support paradox

The development of the European and UK 2G SAF markets is driven by structured public policy frameworks. These long-term regulatory mechanisms provide foundational support, establishing a clear market demand that gives developers and institutional investors the confidence needed to commit capital to advanced fuel projects.

While these policy frameworks provide valuable long-term direction, translating high-level legislation into detailed administrative rules requires time. Competing projects can make access to the necessary industrial infrastructure difficult.

This cautious investment climate can cause projects to pause temporarily during the second or third year of development, highlighting the importance of clear, stable regulatory timelines and hierarchies.

Conclusion and strategic outlook

Achieving the deep decarbonisation goals of global aviation relies heavily on the successful deployment of second- generation SAF projects. To achieve the lowest possible CI scores, these modern chemical plants must be integrated with advanced clean energy infrastructure.

As a result, site selection has expanded beyond traditional logistics to become a complex exercise in infrastructure integration. A project’s viability depends on its access to low-carbon power grids, carbon capture and storage networks, and low-emission hydrogen supplies.

While governments have provided foundational support through forward- looking policies such as the UK SAF Mandate and the EU ReFuelEU regulations, infrastructure availability can lead to implementation delays. The long, multi-year development timelines of these projects require developers to maintain rigorous standards across site selection, engineering design, and regulatory compliance.

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