Dublin Airport could exhaust carbon budget 16 years early

Dublin Airport is on course to exhaust its entire "fair share" carbon budget by 2034 as the Government moves to remove restrictions on further passenger growth, according to a new report on airport expansion across Europe.

The analysis finds that allowing continued expansion at Dublin could increase annual carbon emissions associated with the airport by more than 65%.

This would leave it producing over two-and-a-half times the cumulative emissions considered compatible with limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees celsius – a less stringent threshold than the 1.5-degree goal contained in the Paris Agreement.

Dublin emerges as one of the worst-performing of 20 major European airports examined, with the report concluding that its expansion plans cannot be reconciled with Ireland's climate commitments.

The report calculates Dublin Airport's remaining carbon allocation at approximately 27 million tonnes of CO2 between now and 2050.

But on the growth trajectory examined, that entire allowance would be used up by 2034.

The consequences would also have implications for other sectors such as agriculture, industry and heating because they could be required to deliver deeper cuts in emissions to compensate for the overrun by aviation within the overall national carbon budget.

The findings come just months after legislation was passed allowing the Minister for Transport to raise or remove the airport's long-standing 32 million annual passenger cap.

The legislation will also prevent a similar passenger restriction subsequently being imposed through the planning system.

Opportunity Green, which commissioned the study, said the Government was removing one of the few constraints on aviation growth at precisely the point when Dublin was approaching the limits of its available carbon budget.

"The findings in this report are shocking. Ireland cannot credibly claim climate leadership while simultaneously planning for continued growth in aviation emissions," said Senior Manager of Opportunity Green Ireland Sorcha Tunney.

"At precisely the moment Dublin Airport is facing running out of carbon budget, the Government is removing one of the only effective brakes on its expansion by lifting the passenger cap," she said.

She said Ireland was "not simply loosening Dublin Airport’s passenger cap – it has legislated away the prospect of even having one", making the issue a decision about the future trajectory of Ireland's aviation emissions rather than simply the future capacity of the airport.

The report, Off Track: Reckless expansion plans blow past European airports carbon limits, was compiled by the European clean transport research group Transport & Environment (T&E) and commissioned by Opportunity Green.

It assesses 20 major airports across ten countries against a carbon budget designed to give a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees.

It concludes that every airport examined would exceed its allocated budget under current expansion plans, even after projected improvements from more efficient aircraft and increased use of sustainable aviation fuels are taken into account.

"Increasing traffic volume by adding runways and extending terminals cancels out any benefits from cleaner fuels or efficient engines," said Head of T&E's Travel Smart campaign Denise Auclair.

"No plausible tech improvement can close the gap in time.

"So, governments have a choice to make. They can either keep approving expansion or meet their climate obligations. They simply cannot do both," he said.

Dublin Airport handled approximately 36.4 million passengers last year, already above the original 32 million planning limit imposed by An Bord Pleanála in 2007 in connection with the development of Terminal 2.

A separate planning application is seeking capacity for 40 million passengers annually, while the airport's two runways have been identified as potentially capable of accommodating up to 60 million passengers a year.

The scale of the eventual passenger limit would make a substantial difference to emissions.

The report calculates that allowing Dublin Airport to grow to 40 million passengers would generate approximately four million additional tonnes of CO2 above emissions associated with existing capacity.

However, if passenger numbers reach 40 million by 2030 and subsequently increase to 60 million by 2050, the cumulative additional emissions would rise to around 14 million tonnes of CO2, or close to half of Ireland's entire annual CO2 emissions in 2024.

The wider European findings are also stark. All 20 airports examined are projected to exceed their 1.7-degree carbon budgets, generally emitting between two and three times their allocation by 2050.

Expansion would collectively add an estimated 225 million tonnes of CO2 above emissions associated with existing airport capacity.

Opportunity Green says the Government should instead align Dublin Airport's permitted passenger capacity with its remaining Paris-compatible carbon budget and establish an independently determined carbon budget for the airport which includes international aviation emissions.

It is also calling for taxation of aviation fuel, VAT on airline tickets and fuller coverage of departing flights under the EU Emissions Trading System, while redirecting public investment from additional airport capacity towards cleaner transport alternatives.

Ms Tunney said Ireland's position was particularly difficult to reconcile with its current Presidency of the Council of the European Union.

"How can Ireland, as President of the Council, credibly ask Europe to demonstrate greater climate ambition while facilitating aviation expansion at home without a plan for the emissions that expansion will generate?" she said.

Read more: When will new Dublin Airport passenger cap come into effect?