ESRI predicts sharp rise in number of people needing care

Demographic change will place increasing pressure on both family carers and formal care services according to research by the Economic Social Research Institute (ESRI).

The report published today poses questions for policy makers about how additional care will be met in the coming years and who will provide it.

The number of people aged 50+ requiring care is projected to increase by up to 58% by 2040, due to the aging population. In 2022, an estimated 123,802 people in the same age cohort received family care.

According to existing data, females and those aged 45–64 are the most likely to report providing family care. However, older carers were found to provide more hours of care.

Using the Healthy Ireland Survey and the Census Longitudinal Dataset to profile carers and recipients of family care in Ireland, the ESRI examined future care needs.

Given the scale of the projected increase in demand for family care, it suggests that some additional need will be required from formal services.

The report says if family carers are to remain a core component of Ireland's long-term care system, additional supports and targeted policies will be essential, with these supports varying by the nature and intensity of the caring role.

It notes that receipt of family care increases with age and is more common among women. In total, 6% of those aged 70-74 reported receiving family care, compared to 43% of those aged 85+.

While many older individuals may not require assistance, the report highlights that there may be unmet need.

It notes that a substantial proportion of older people report difficulties managing basic personal care such as dressing and bathing or carrying out tasks such as cooking and shopping; but they do not receive any care.

The findings show that demographic change will place increasing pressure on both family carers and formal care services over the coming years according to the report author Sheelah Connolly.

"Policy will need to consider how best to support family carers while also ensuring that sufficient formal services are available to meet growing need," she said.

Minister of State for Older People and Housing, Kieran O’Donnell welcomed the findings, which he said "reinforced the need to continue strengthening both support for family carers and the availability of community-based and formal care services".