Prediction Market Report Shows $11B-$34B Offshore US User Activity - Blockonomi

by · Blockonomi

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  • U.S. users may have driven $11B to $34B offshore prediction market volume.
  • Polymarket alone accounted for up to $27B in estimated U.S.-linked activity.
  • Offshore share dropped from 84.4% in 2024 to 60.9% in 2025.
  • Kalshi processed about $70B of $74B in regulated prediction market volume.
  • Report cites VPN use and blockchain platforms as key access channels.

U.S. users accessed offshore prediction platforms despite geo-restrictions, according to a new Crane Zeng report. The firm estimated that Americans contributed up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market volume. It also linked much of this activity to blockchain-based prediction platforms and VPN usage patterns.

Prediction Market Offshore Activity Linked to Polymarket Trading Surge

Crane Zeng reported that U.S. users drove between $11 billion and $34 billion in offshore prediction market volume. The firm said Polymarket alone accounted for $11 billion to $27 billion of activity. It described these figures as conservative based on third-party estimates.

The report stated that around 30% of Polymarket trading volume came from U.S. users. It also used Dune Analytics data to estimate trading flows across platforms. “Based on current estimates, U.S. offshore activity continues to expand,” the report said.

Researchers estimated that offshore prediction markets held 84.4% of the total volume in 2024. They added that this share dropped to 60.9% in 2025. The report linked this shift to rapid growth in regulated venues.

Crane Zeng also projected $133 billion in annual offshore volume from U.S. users by 2030. It is based on current market growth trends. The firm also cited increasing participation across political and financial event contracts.

The report said blockchain-based platforms dominated offshore access patterns. It identified Polymarket, Opinion, Limitless, Overtime, and Predict as key venues. It added that anonymity and low KYC requirements supported user activity.

Analysts noted that VPN usage likely contributed to geo-restriction bypass. They also said prediction markets function through binary yes-or-no contracts. Users place trades on outcomes across politics, sports, and economic events.

Kalshi and Regulated Platforms Narrow Offshore Volume Gap

The report compared offshore platforms with CFTC-regulated prediction markets. It stated that Kalshi processed $70 billion out of $74 billion in regulated volume. It also included Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini activity.

Crane Zeng estimated offshore platforms processed $85 billion in total volume. It stated that offshore platforms accounted for 54% of total activity. This figure dropped from 84% in the prior year period.

The firm referenced Bernstein’s analysis projecting a $1 trillion prediction market volume by 2030. It linked this growth to 80% compound annual growth assumptions. The report aligned this outlook with rising institutional participation.

Polymarket previously faced restrictions after serving U.S. users without registration. The CFTC banned its operations in 2022 due to swap classification rules. The platform later reentered regulated pathways after acquiring QCEX.

Kalshi expanded operations after winning a legal challenge against the CFTC in 2024. The court ruling allowed election-related contracts in the United States. The platform then scaled event-based trading across multiple categories.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues to require Designated Contract Market licensing. Unlicensed offshore platforms remain restricted for U.S. access. The report stated that enforcement differences still shape global prediction market flows.

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