Goldman Sachs says AI's impact on the US economy was "basically zero" last year

Rumblings of an AI bubble continue to fester

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Bottom line: Experts continue to debate the real economic impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries. Some analysts argue that large language model technology is already transforming many sectors, while others believe its measurable economic impact has so far been limited.

Goldman Sachs analysts have suggested that the impact of AI on the US economy was "basically zero" in 2025. The investment bank argued that large language models, chatbots, and other AI-related technologies did not meaningfully contribute to the country's officially recorded 2.2 percent GDP growth last year. Unsurprisingly, the claim that AI is producing little measurable economic benefit in the world's largest economy is likely to fuel further debate about a potential AI market bubble.

According to Goldman Sachs' Joseph Briggs, some recent projections about AI's economic impact rely on optimistic narratives that may obscure a deeper assessment of underlying trends. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and other major financial institutions have expressed similar views, suggesting that much of the technology sector's growth may be indirectly benefiting manufacturing economies in Asia.

Massive data center expansion plans announced by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and other major technology companies will require significant supplies of computing hardware over the coming years. Analysts estimate that roughly three-quarters of Big Tech's projected capital expenditure could contribute directly to gross domestic product growth in Taiwan and other Asian technology manufacturing hubs.

Over the past several years, successive US administrations have attempted – with limited success – to reduce the country's dependence on semiconductors and other computing components manufactured in Asia. Donald Trump has argued that AI investments are currently supporting US economic growth, while some state-level regulatory initiatives may, according to critics, risk constraining that growth engine.

The number of investors and analysts warning about a potential AI bubble appears to be growing. Meanwhile, corporate executives have acknowledged that AI technology is not a magic productivity engine capable of dramatically accelerating efficiency or output.

Some observers argue that replacing human taxpayers with software-based systems that do not contribute back to the broader economy could produce unintended long-term consequences. At the same time, other analysts continue to describe AI as the foundation of a new technological revolution.

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According to analyst Joseph Politano, the economic impact of AI has been overstated, though it remains significant. Chatbots and large language models contributed roughly 0.2 percent to last year's 2.2 percent GDP growth, Politano said. Much of the infrastructure required to support AI development is imported, making it difficult to precisely measure the technology's net contribution to individual segments of the US economy.

Tax advisor Joe Brusuelas said that the economic effects of AI are difficult to estimate, and its contribution to 2025's GDP may eventually require revision. Critics, he said, are focusing too narrowly on specific details, while broader economic drivers remain uncertain. Everyone is "trying to peer through the fog to understand what is driving growth," Brusuelas added.